Khaberni - A number of climate experts have warned that a strong climatic phenomenon known as «Super El Niño» could form later this year; which threatens to increase pressures on global food prices, in light of the ongoing disturbances in fertilizer supplies due to the consequences of the war in Iran.
Climate scientists expect an increased probability of the formation of «El Niño», which leads to an increase in the planet's temperature in the coming months, where weather experts in the United States estimate a one in three chance of a «strong» climatic phenomenon occurring from October to December.
European climate models indicate a higher chance of a very strong phenomenon, known as «Super El Niño», despite what is called the «spring barrier» which may reduce the accuracy of the predictions, according to a report by «CNBC Africa».
What is the «El Niño» phenomenon?
The «El Niño» phenomenon is known as a rise in sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, occurring naturally every few years when temperatures rise by at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average. The term «Super El Niño» refers to an extremely strong phase of the Southern Oscillation (ENSO), where sea surface temperatures rise by at least two degrees Celsius above normal levels, according to «CNBC Africa».
Chris Jacarini, the senior analyst for food and agriculture affairs in the UK Energy and Climate Information Unit, stated that 2026 is shaping up to be a year where climate risks and geopolitical conflicts intersect, increasing pressures on food prices.
The British expert clarified that «food prices are pressured from two fronts: extreme weather disrupting production in major agricultural areas, and a food system that still heavily relies on fossil fuels, making it susceptible to rising costs in gas, fertilizers, transportation, and packaging».
He noted that the El Niño phenomenon typically leads to higher prices for commodities like cocoa, edible oils, rice, sugar, as well as tropical products such as bananas, tea, coffee, chocolate, and meat dependent on soy-based feed.
These predictions come after years of another phenomenon known as «La Niña» that typically helps lower global temperatures compared to natural averages.
Meanwhile, the prices of oil, gas, and fertilizers have sharply risen due to supply disruptions across the Strait of Hormuz, which is a strategic passage linking the Arabian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman.
Approximately one-third of the global maritime fertilizer trade passes through this strait, however, shipping movement has significantly decreased since the airstrikes by the United States and Israel on Iran on February 28th last year.
The increases in fuel and fertilizer prices come with the onset of the farming season in the United States, raising concerns about rising food prices and declining crops.
Paul Donovan, chief economist at «UBS», explained that rising energy prices often lead to increased food prices, considering that the fertilizer industry heavily depends on natural gas.
He indicated that 2026 could witness a strong climactic pattern of «Super El Niño», which could make drought and water shortage more impactful on agricultural production than the shortage of fertilizers itself.
Warning of an increase in global food insecurity
In related context, the United Nations World Food Programme has warned that the number of people suffering from food insecurity could rise to levels similar to those seen at the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2022.
The programme anticipates that the number of people facing acute hunger could increase by about 45 million if the war in Iran continues after June and if oil prices remain above 100 dollars per barrel, in addition to about 318 million people who are already suffering from food insecurity around the world.
Dawid Heil, co-director of the Global Natural Resources Portfolio at «Ninety One», stated that the risk of «El Niño» to global food production depends on the timing, intensity, and duration of the phenomenon, warning that the combination of the impacts of the war in Iran and harsh climate conditions could lead to significant pressures on the markets.
