Khaberni - While U.S. President Donald Trump continues to assert that the U.S. strikes in June last year "eliminated" Iran's uranium enrichment nuclear program, regional officials and analysts have grown more skeptical of this claim in recent months, warning that a new war between Israel and Iran could be just a matter of time.
Mutual Attack
The New York Times mentions that Iran continues to develop a new enrichment site known as "Mount Al-Fas," and has refused to allow international inspectors access to it or to any other previously undisclosed nuclear sites.
The newspaper clarified that the absence of negotiations represents a serious dilemma, and many experts believe this makes a new Israeli attack on Iran almost inevitable, especially given Israeli officials' firm belief that the Iranian nuclear program poses an existential threat.
Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, mentions that Iran is likely to respond to any new Israeli attack more sharply than it did in June.
He said that Iranian officials have informed him that missile factories are operating around the clock, and if a new war breaks out, "Iran hopes to launch 2000 missiles at once to destroy Israeli defenses, rather than 500 missiles over 12 days as happened in June."
Vaez added, "There is no evidence of an imminent attack now, but Israel sees that its mission is not completed, and sees no reason to avoid the next round of conflict, prompting Iran to bolster its preparations for the upcoming round."
Vaez also noted that some desire to continue pursuing a new nuclear deal with the United States, believing that thisould be better for Iran given the massive inflation and severe water shortage faced by the country’s population of about 92 million.
Different Approaches
Vaez pointed to different approaches within Iran, with some officials seeking to negotiate a new nuclear agreement with the United States, considering it the best option given the massive inflation and severe water shortages faced by about 92 million Iranians. Others prefer direct confrontation, considering negotiating with Trump, who withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal, to be futile.
Despite the differences, senior Iranian officials agree on one thing: a new round of fighting with Israel is inevitable.
The newspaper mentioned that Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, sufficient to make 11 nuclear weapons, is either buried under rubble as Iran claims, or has been moved to a secure location as Israeli officials believe.
Iran Weaker Than Ever
Suzanne Maloney, an Iran affairs expert and director of the Foreign Policy Program at Brookings Institute, said: "Iran is weaker today than it has been since the American invasion of Iraq, but it is not so weak as to be without influence." She added, "This weakness makes it easy for countries in the region to deal with Iran and maintain relationships, but at the same time it could become more dangerous in moments of despair."
Despite Iran’s ongoing denial of possessing nuclear weapons, it has enriched uranium to levels unsuitable for peaceful use, prevented international inspectors from inspecting its nuclear facilities, and expanded its ballistic missile capabilities.
Fallout from Previous Attacks
Iran responded to the Israeli strikes by launching more than 500 ballistic missiles and about 1100 drones toward Israel, resulting in the deaths of 32 people and injuring more than 3000 there, while more than 1000 people died in Iran.
During the 12-day war in June, Israel registered 36 missile strikes and one drone attack in populated areas, causing damage to 2305 homes in 240 buildings, in addition to two universities and a hospital, and displacing more than 13,000 Israelis.
