Jordan is not facing a single crisis that can be resolved with a decision or a standalone government program, but rather five strategic issues (Big 5 Issues) that are intertwined, intersecting economic, water, security, social, and political considerations. With regional escalations accelerating and pressures increasing, there is a growing need to transition from managing crises after they occur to building national capacity to anticipate them. These are the «Big Five» that should be at the heart of the Jordanian discourse.
First: An economy that grows... but slowly
Diagnosis: The Jordanian economic problem is not a financial or monetary collapse, but the difficulty of achieving high and sustainable growth capable of generating job opportunities. The IMF estimates a real growth of about 2.7% in 2026, after 2.8% in 2025, while unemployment among Jordanians remains at about 21%. The paradox is that the economy maintains its overall stability, but it does not grow quickly enough to make a tangible difference in the livelihood of the citizens. The problem worsens with rising public debt burdens; in the 2026 budget, current expenditures amount to about 11.5 billion dinars, compared to only 1.6 billion dinars for capital expenditures, with salaries, pensions, and debt service consuming the largest portion of current spending.
Strategic Solution: What is required is not merely «fiscal tightening», but gradually transforming the budget into a tool for growth, by enhancing the efficiency of capital expenditure and directing it towards technology, industry, renewable energy, and productive infrastructure, in parallel with improving the business environment and attracting private investment. It is also imperative to expand the application of performance and outcome-based budgets, so that the question is not «how much did we spend?» but «what did we achieve for what we spent?». The Jordanian economy does not need less spending, but smarter and more productive spending.
Secondly: Water... an urgent challenge
Diagnosis: Jordan is one of the most water-scarce countries in the world, with a per capita share of renewable fresh water of about 61 cubic meters per year, far below the global water poverty line of 500 cubic meters per person. The crisis is not only about scarcity but also the cost of securing, transporting, and distributing water, losses in networks, and attacks on resources, along with increasing demand from population, agricultural, and industrial sectors.
Strategic Solution: The National Water Carrier project is one of Jordan's most important strategic projects, targeting the desalination of 300 million cubic meters of water annually from the Red Sea and transporting it through a pipeline extending about 450 kilometers to various regions of the kingdom. The project has advanced in financing and implementation, with a government contribution of about $722 million, and financing up to $1.1 billion from a consortium of Jordanian commercial banks, along with participation from the Social Security Investment Fund, while the solar power plant will provide about 30% of the project's energy needs. However, the National Carrier alone is not a solution; water security requires simultaneously reducing network losses, expanding the use of treated water, installing smart meters, increasing rainwater harvesting, and improving water use efficiency in agriculture. Water is not just a service issue, but a matter of national security, economy, and food.
Thirdly: National security in a turbulent region
Diagnosis: Jordan is no longer just an indirect recipient of the repercussions of regional crises; the escalation affects border security, trade, energy, tourism movements, transportation and insurance costs, and supply chains. The greatest risk is not necessarily the outbreak of a direct war, but the transfer of regional shock to the economy through increased energy and shipping costs, declining tourism, disrupted trade, and increased pressure on public finances.
Strategic Solution: The required shift is from the concept of «crisis management» to «pre-crisis readiness». This means maintaining safety margins in strategic inventories, diversifying energy sources, securing supply chain alternatives, protecting critical infrastructure, and developing capabilities in air defense, cybersecurity, and drone management. Service continuity, energy, food, ports, and transport should also become part of the comprehensive national security concept. Jordan has security and military institutions that enjoy high trust, but the challenge is to transform this trust into a comprehensive national readiness system.
Fourthly: Refuge... from the burden of hosting to managing a new phase
Diagnosis: Jordan has for over a decade endured significant pressures from hosting large numbers of Syrians and other refugees, affecting host communities and water, education, health, housing, and labor market sectors. It is important to distinguish between the number of Syrians residing in the kingdom and the number of Syrian refugees registered with the Commission; the latter stands at about 343,000 at the end of August 2026, after tens of thousands returned to Syria. Meanwhile, the international community's capacity to finance the response has declined, forcing the World Food Program to halt food aid to Syrian refugees living outside camps from April 2026 due to funding shortages.
Strategic Solution: The refugee issue enters a new phase entitled sustainable voluntary return, in parallel with supporting hosting communities. As of September 2026, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees has expanded the cash assistance program for voluntary return to include Syrian refugees registered inside and outside camps, at a rate of 70 dinars per individual, with additional assistance of 210 dinars for some of the most vulnerable families, subject to available funding. However, the return should not just become a matter of numbers; its sustainability is linked to conditions inside Syria and the ability to secure a dignified life for returnees. Jordan needs to reshape its relationship with donors on the basis of development and burden-sharing, not just humanitarian response.
Fifthly: The trust gap and institutional reform
Diagnosis: Opinion polls reveal an important paradox in the Jordanian scene. Trust in the government reached 49%, satisfaction with general government performance 61%, while satisfaction with maintaining security and order reached 90%. In contrast, trust in the House of Representatives remained at only 27%, while satisfaction with government efforts in creating job opportunities stood at 22%, and maintaining price stability at 23%. These results indicate that the citizen trusts the state and its security institutions, but wants clearer results in the economy, job opportunities, and living costs.
Strategic Solution: Institutional and political reform must be a continuous process, not just a stage that ends with the enactment of laws. It is essential to enhance the impact of legislation, measure its results before and after implementation, involve the private sector, universities, and civil society in policy-making, and give more space to youth in parties and political institutions. Reform succeeds not just when laws change, but when the citizen feels that their voice has an impact, and that the institution representing them can turn demands into policies and outcomes.
The conclusion: The battle is not on five fronts but in managing the relationship between them
The five issues are not separate; security pressure can raise energy and transport costs, financial pressure can limit the state's investment capacity, water scarcity can threaten food security, the burdens of refuge can pressure services and public finances, while the trust gap can affect the reform's ability to gain popular momentum. Hence, the real challenge is not to solve each issue separately, but to build a single strategy that interconnects them.
The required Jordanian equation for the coming stage can be summarized in three principles: proactivity instead of response, productive investment instead of unproductive spending, and partnership instead of reliance on a single source.
Jordan possesses important elements of strength: established state institutions, relative monetary and financial stability, security institutions that enjoy high trust, and major strategic projects that have begun to move from planning to implementation. However, the real challenge is the speed of transition from awareness of risks to building the capacity to face them. States are not only tested when crises occur, but before they occur: Have they built enough water and energy reserves, financial reserves, institutional trust, and production capacity?
And herein lies the greatest Jordanian test: to transform readiness from a reaction to a crisis into a state culture that precedes it.
