Khaberni - The World Bank predicted today, Tuesday, that global energy prices will rise by 24 percent this year, reaching their highest levels since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions and commodity market disruptions, particularly in the Middle East.
The bank said in its report on the outlook for commodity markets, released today Tuesday on its official website, that global commodity prices are expected to rise by about 16 percent by 2026, driven by increases in energy and fertilizer prices, along with some metals reaching unprecedented record levels.
It noted that attacks on energy infrastructure, along with navigation disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz through which about 35 percent of the sea-borne crude oil trade passes, caused one of the largest oil supply shocks, with initial losses estimated at about 10 million barrels per day.
Despite the decline in prices from their recent peak, Brent crude still remains more than 50 percent higher compared to the start of the year, with expectations that its average price will reach $86 per barrel this year, compared to $69 in 2025, assuming a gradual return to stability in shipping movements by late this year.
But the bank warned that prices could rise to $115 per barrel if attacks on energy facilities escalate or the recovery of supplies is delayed.
The report also warned that the prolongation of the conflict could exacerbate inflationary pressures and contribute to a slowdown in global growth, particularly in fragile economies and those dependent on importing basic commodities.
