The next phase is understood by the world’s ability to secure energy before any other indicator. The movement of prices remains a reflection, while the real test lies in accessing oil and gas and ensuring their continuous flow. With supplies transforming into a limited element, the $200 level signals the onset of a new phase in the crisis, not its end.
In this context, talking about “potential risks” to energy supplies is no longer accurate, as markets have actually entered a phase of disruption, with a loss estimated between 12 to 15 million barrels per day of flows, coinciding with a significant disruption in liquified natural gas supplies approaching 20% of the global market. This development reflects not just geopolitical tension but points to a profound shift in the market structure, where military conflicts intersect with global energy arteries, from the Strait of Hormuz to potential disruptions at the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait with the entry of the Houthis into the confrontation, threatening oil flows and trade alike, especially towards Asia.
In a market that relies on a delicate balance between supply and demand, the loss of between 15 to 20% of global supplies leads to a direct imbalance in the availability of oil and gas before its full impact on prices is apparent. Here, the logic of dealing with the market changes; financial capacity alone is no longer sufficient, as the quantities themselves have become limited. Some countries and sectors might find themselves out of the competition, not due to economic weakness, but because the supply no longer covers everyone.
This reality opens the door to a phase where demand declines involuntarily due to the lack of supplies. Parts of the economic activity will slow down or stop because energy is not available in the needed quantities. Factories, transportation, and travel gradually enter a state of contraction when fuel becomes a rare element. And as this situation widens, the market’s operational mechanism changes, revealing a pattern closer to distributing what is available rather than relying on traditional pricing mechanisms.
And the crisis does not stop at oil, as this disruption coincides with a significant disturbance in the natural gas market, prompting many countries to shift towards fuel oil and diesel for power generation, which adds additional pressure on demand at a sensitive time. The result is a series of interconnected effects: shortage of oil, shortage of gas, sharp rise in electricity costs, the return of coal as a forced option, and an acceleration in global inflation. The effects of this are also extending to new sectors like data centers and artificial intelligence, which increasingly rely on energy consumption.
What makes this crisis more dangerous than the 1973 crisis is not just its size, but its temporal extension and its interconnection with other economic sectors. The world today relies on energy in all its joints, from industry to technology. Additionally, part of the current disruption is linked to damages in infrastructure that may take a long time to repair, enhancing the chances of the crisis persisting for a longer period.
In this framework, politics has become a direct part of the market movement. Statements and international movements immediately affect expectations and prices, amid a situation of high uncertainty. And with the ongoing disruption of supplies and the gradual decline of strategic inventories, the $200 scenario becomes closer to being a reality.
At this stage, energy balances change significantly. Some economies will be able to adapt, while others face pressures that could lead to decline or cessation. Here, oil and gas turn into a crucial factor in the ability to continue, and the challenge lies in securing the energy itself before any other consideration.
