Khaberni - The relations between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran are among the most complex and tangled in contemporary political geography. Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, an atmosphere of mutual institutional hostility has prevailed, embodied in repeated crises ranging from tense diplomacy to mutual military threats.
Those looking at the political reality say that America wants to change the ruling regime in Iran, not a full war against it, and wants to return Iran to the rule of 1978 known as the Shah and named the operation the Lion’s Roar, referring to the Iranian flag that bore the lion at the time. Note that it was she who brought the turbaned ones and Khomeini, and now their theatrical show has ended, as America has reaped billions from the situation of Khomeini, as Iran was the main reason for instigating wars in the region, starting with Saddam Hussein and the rest of the Gulf countries. The Arab Gulf states ended up purchasing American weapons at huge amounts exceeding one trillion dollars, in addition to preparing the Shah’s son for rule, whom America had overthrown at the time for having a familial tie and marriage to the Shah’s daughter, as his daughter's husband is a Jewish billionaire, and the deposed Shah’s son now resides in exile in the United States of America being prepared to take over the governance.
In the midst of this ongoing struggle, theories emerge talking about hypothetical scenarios or strategic plans that were aimed at overthrowing the revolutionary regime and replacing its leadership, specifically the spiritual leader of the revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, with a pro-Western figure, often referring to the lineage of the former Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. Analyzing this hypothesis requires deconstructing the concept of war with the Lion's Roar and logically exploring the feasibility and objectives of the scenario to replace Khomeini with the former Shah’s son.
Talking about a direct and comprehensive American war against Iran, which can be described as the Lion's Roar hinting at brute force and open military intervention, faces enormous logistical and strategic hurdles. Iran, unlike Iraq or Afghanistan, enjoys significant geographic depth, traditional and semi-military (like the Revolutionary Guards and Basij forces) solid strength, challenging terrain, a popular base, and although divided, capable of waging a long-term war of attrition. The American experience in the region, especially the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, has shown the heavy cost of widespread ground interventions in the Middle East, reducing the likelihood of a full and direct invasion requiring the deployment of hundreds of thousands of troops.
Instead, the American strategy historically relied on alternative paths to try changing the regime, which could fall under asymmetric warfare or maximum pressure. These strategies included crippling economic sanctions, cyber warfare, supporting internal opposition, and intelligence operations aimed at destabilizing the political and security stability of the regime. This hybrid approach is most likely to achieve American objectives without slipping into a costly conventional war, both militarily and politically internationally.
The second part of the hypothesis, relating to replacing Khomeini with the former Shah’s son Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, requires a precise understanding of the political reality post-revolution. Khomeini was not merely a political leader but was a spiritual and religious symbol who succeeded in uniting broad spectra under the banner of the anti-Western Islamic revolution. Replacing such a charismatic and ideological figure with one representing the previous regime, which was itself overthrown by the revolution, poses an existential challenge to the entire revolutionary process.
The Shah’s son, the former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, resides in exile and leads an opposition movement advocating the restoration of the constitutional or secular monarchy. While this current represents a sector of Iranians, particularly those who see the current regime as an economic and social failure, adopting it as an officially supported external alternative faces massive internal challenges. Any attempt to reintroduce the emblem of the deposed regime by external military force would be interpreted by the vast majority of the Iranian people, including many opponents of the current regime, as foreign occupation aiming to subdue Iran to its agenda, potentially leading to an unexpected rallying around the existing regime under the banner of defending national sovereignty.
History indicates that the success of any regime change crucially depends on having a strong and prepared internal base to take power. In the case of Iran, there is no clear national consensus on returning to the monarchy or even on a unified alternative political model that the United States can effectively support as a legitimate and stable alternative to the Islamic Republic. The path pursued by the United States in dealing with Iran has leaned more towards containing the regional influence of the regime, undermining its nuclear capabilities, and economic pressure, rather than adopting a comprehensive and costly regime change project based on a character ostracized by the majority of the population due to historical ties to the U.S.-supported Shah era.
Therefore, it can be said that the hypothesis of the war with the Lion's Roar and replacing Khomeini with the former Shah’s son, although it may be proposed in the circles of strategic planning as one of the most extreme possible scenarios, remains a high-risk and low-probability option for direct military execution. The practical reality indicates that the American-Iranian confrontation takes the form of a shadow war, an economic war, and ongoing geopolitical influence conflict, aiming to force Tehran to change its behavior in the region, not necessarily to radically change its state structure by bringing down the Pahlavi past at the helm. Any future scenario of regime change, if it occurs, is likely to stem from internal rifts or profound social shifts, not from direct外部支援的外部侵略。
