Khaberni - A report published by the "Financial Times" shed light on China's success in achieving a record trade surplus of about one trillion dollars during 2025, a year dominated by the reciprocal tariff war with the United States and accompanied by widespread economic and trade tensions.
Writers Thomas Hill and Hao Xiang Kuo said that China's achievement of this unprecedented surplus, despite escalating pressures and tensions with America, confirms its resilience as a major trading power that is difficult to restrain, and its ability to redirect its trade towards alternative markets.
The writers explained that China's trade surplus with the United States decreased by more than 100 billion dollars compared to last year, but this decline was countered by a noticeable rise in other markets ranging from Southeast Asia to Europe. This resulted in a record surplus in the trade balance for goods amounting to 1.08 trillion dollars up to November, driven by exports totaling 3.41 trillion dollars.
This week, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, warned of "imbalances" in China's trade relations, a description previously described by French President Emmanuel Macron as "unbearable" just days ago.
According to the report writers, this trade gap reflects China's advancement in the industrial value chain, particularly in the automotive sector, alongside its longstanding dominance in areas such as smartphones and computers, as well as low-value goods.
The newspaper quoted Michelle Lam, chief China economist at Societe Generale: "In the short term, I believe that the trade surplus will continue to grow. It's a problem that will not disappear anytime soon."
However, the strength of Chinese exports conceals, according to the report, a more fragile economic picture domestically, where policymakers face increasing challenges from weak consumer confidence and continuing price deflation, at a time when the decline in imports is pressuring China's relations with its trading partners and increasing the likelihood of retaliatory measures.
Boom in the Trade Balance with Southeast Asia
The report writers pointed out that the growth of China's exports to Southeast Asian countries is one of the most prominent features of the new global trade landscape, closely monitored in connection with the trade war ignited by US President Donald Trump.
China recorded a trade surplus with Southeast Asian countries of 245 billion dollars during the first 11 months of this year, a number significantly exceeding the total surplus recorded throughout 2024, which amounted to 191 billion dollars.
This growth is led by an increase in the surplus with countries such as Vietnam and Thailand, in addition to Malaysia, which has turned its trade deficit with it last year into a surplus this year.
The data also show China's expansion into a number of other markets, with its trade surplus over 11 months with Africa increasing by 27 billion dollars compared to the full year 2024 figures, driven by an increase in exports to Nigeria, Liberia, and Egypt, as well as ship sales to the continent.
China's surplus with the European Union increased by about 20 billion dollars, and with Latin America by about 9 billion dollars.
Exceptional Numbers in the Automotive Sector
The writers explained that the largest increase in the trade surplus during the year came from the automotive sector, with China's surplus in this sector increasing by 22 billion dollars over the first ten months of 2025 compared to the same period last year, reaching a total surplus of 66 billion dollars.
This figure represents an extraordinary shift, as China was recording a trade deficit in the automotive sector with the world just 3 years ago, according to Financial Times data.
Moreover, trade in cars between China and the European Union this year has shifted from a deficit to a surplus, while car exports have helped enhance the trade surplus with the African continent.
Additionally, China achieved a global surplus in battery trade amounting to 64 billion dollars during the first ten months of the year, a direct reflection of its accelerated shift towards electric vehicles, making Chinese companies like "BYD" prominent global names.
Foreign Investments and Their Role in the Surplus
The writers pointed out that China's massive industrial sector still forms a vital base for multinational companies, from Apple to Volkswagen, alongside local manufacturers.
Customs data show that China's exports from foreign-invested companies reached 837 billion dollars during the first ten months of 2025, accounting for more than a quarter of total exports.
Phones and communications products were among the most contributing goods to the trade surplus, valued at 151 billion dollars, followed by computers which added about 70 billion dollars.
The report also highlighted that the low-value parcel sector—a model followed by e-commerce companies like "Shein" and "Tmall"—added 22 billion dollars to the trade surplus during the first ten months of the year, compared to the same period last year, driven by a significant increase in shipments to Europe, despite American and European criticisms of this model due to its exploitation of customs exemptions loopholes.
Weaker Currency and Lower Prices
The writers explained that the exchange rate of the renminbi (yuan) has risen recently against the dollar, yet the Chinese currency remains weaker compared to the last decade.
Unlike other major economies, China is experiencing deflation in consumer and producer prices domestically, a contraction linked to high production rates that fuel the export boom.
The newspaper quoted economic expert Adam Wolf: "China's share of global exports is rising at the fastest rate since the first 'China shock' in the early millennium after the country joined the World Trade Organization."
Experts confirm that deflationary pressures give Chinese producers an additional competitive edge in the global markets. Shuang Ding, chief economist for Greater China and North Asia at Standard Chartered, states: "Every year, the inflation differential gives China an additional pricing advantage."
China's Purchases
In contrast to the growth in exports, China's imports in dollar value declined to 2.3 trillion dollars.
Some of the top goods the country imports include iron ore, copper, soybeans, and petrochemicals, along with being a major importer of semiconductors, a central focus of the trade pressures exerted by the United States.
Shuang Ding said that there are some "indications of import substitution," meaning that a number of products China used to import—like industrial machines and robots—are now being manufactured locally.
Economic expert Adam Wolf predicts that the trade surplus will continue to rise, nearing 1.5 trillion dollars, especially if investment in fixed assets remains weak, particularly in the construction sector which heavily relies on basic commodities and typically contributes to increased imports.
