Khaberni - In an analysis of global epidemic monitoring data, Dr. Mohammad Hassan Al-Tarawneh, a consultant in pulmonary diseases, sounded the alarm regarding the unusual spread of respiratory viruses this season.
Dr. Al-Tarawneh warned that the current wave of viruses came 3 to 4 weeks earlier compared to the last two seasons, confirming that the world is facing an increase in cases with expectations that the "peak" will arrive later.
Dr. Al-Tarawneh emphasized that the rapid spread of respiratory viruses, especially influenza, is not just a local observation but a global phenomenon documented by European epidemiological centers, noting that the monitoring data shows an increase in the detection of influenza cases three to four weeks earlier than the usual schedule for recent seasons.
Dr. Al-Tarawneh stated, "This early epidemic onset means that we are in the heart of the wave before we are fully prepared for it. The viruses did not wait for the peak of winter to start; they began their strong activity early. This unusual timing forewarns that the season might be more severe and impactful on the capacity of health systems."
*The strain prompting the spread: "The new curve"
The pulmonary disease consultant explained the strength of this early spread with two main factors:
- The new strain A(H3N2) subclade K
Dr. Al-Tarawneh pointed out that epidemiological reports indicate that a new strain of influenza, A(H3N2) subclade K, is currently leading this early spread in wide areas. This strain was not predominant in recent seasons, meaning that a large part of the population has lower immunity against it, facilitating its faster and stronger transmission.
- Social mingling and decreased compliance
Al-Tarawneh added that the full return to social mingling and the "immunity gap" left by years of precautionary measures, particularly among children (the age group 5-14 years which usually records the highest positivity rates at the beginning of the season), contributed to creating the ideal environment for the transmission of this "relatively new" strain in community circulation.
Dr. Al-Tarawneh continued, "When we have an active new strain, with almost complete absence of mask wearing in enclosed spaces, and with some people’s reluctance to get vaccinated, we face an inevitable increase in the infection curve, and this is what we are witnessing today."
*Urgent medical warning: "The peak has not yet arrived.. and immediate preparation is necessary"
Dr. Al-Tarawneh stressed that the current rise in case numbers does not represent the end of the wave; rather, the coming weeks, with further decreases in temperature, will determine the severity of the season.
In conclusion, Dr. Al-Tarawneh said: "Based on the early epidemic timing, we warn that the peak has not yet arrived. The message is for everyone: We need to raise everyone’s awareness of the importance of not spreading the infection and to hasten in receiving the seasonal influenza vaccine, which still provides significant protection against severe symptoms and hospital admissions, even if the strain is slightly different. We also call for a return to simple but effective precautions, such as using masks in enclosed and crowded places, and paying attention to hand washing, to reduce the expected pressure on our hospitals in the coming period, and the Ministry of Health should take precautionary and preventive measures and announce them regularly according to global and regional epidemiological updates."
