Khaberni - Israeli military analyst Avi Issacharoff stated that Hamas emerged from the recent ceasefire agreement in a relatively strong position, having obtained – according to his assessment – international guarantees that prevent "Israel" from resuming attacks as long as negotiations concerning the subsequent phases of the "Trump Deal" continue.
Issacharoff believes that these negotiations could extend over a long period, allowing Hamas to catch its breath and regain its field and administrative presence in the Gaza Strip, benefiting from the expected international aid for reconstruction. However, the analyst questions how "Israel" will deal with any attempt by Hamas to rebuild its military capabilities, as he believes – it is certain – that the movement will seek to do this quickly before reaching a final agreement.
Issacharoff adds that Hamas has achieved something more important than tactical gains: unprecedented international recognition and clear political achievements that have resulted in diplomatically isolating "Israel" and restoring the Palestinian issue's standing in the world. He sees the only hope for "Israel" is that the prolonged ceasefire will allow it to break its international isolation, which it fell into due to a wave of "hostility towards Israel" on the one hand, and "its failed policies" on the other hand.
The analyst notes that a decisive shift in the American stance – represented by President Donald Trump's decision to oblige Netanyahu to stop the war – came after a failed "Israeli" attempt to target Hamas leadership in Qatar. While the movement's leadership was meeting in Doha to discuss the American proposal, "Israel" attempted to assassinate several leaders there, which angered Washington and prompted Trump's team to exert tremendous pressure on Tel Aviv, considering Qatar a strategic ally in economic and security issues, and not merely a sponsor of Hamas. This pressure led to the birth of the new American "peace plan," despite everyone realizing that it would not be fully implemented.
Issacharoff continues that what "Israel" will not achieve at this stage is clear: Hamas will not give up its weapons, neither now nor in the near future, before the establishment of a Palestinian state. It will neither be defeated nor eradicated, making Netanyahu's repeated claims of "complete victory" meaningless. The movement also rejects any presence of a foreign governing force that is not Palestinian within the sector, while it will not gain full control over Gaza or the release of all the "heavy" prisoners it has demanded. Although the names of those released have not yet been clarified, according to Issacharoff, this will not hinder establishing the ceasefire.
As for the future of the agreement, he sees it as fragile and temporary unless the political aspect of the "Trump Plan" is completed. "Israel," he says, needs to introduce an alternative authority to Hamas in Gaza to achieve a strategic change and has initially agreed with some Arab countries to participate in a joint force alongside the Palestinian Authority with the goal of disarming Hamas under a clear international threat to resume war in case of refusal. But if "Israel" continues to refuse the role of the Palestinian Authority and insists that the dismantling of Hamas will occur "by a miracle," it should prepare for another round of war. The only difference next time, he concludes, is that "the Palestinian organizations will not have living hostages."
Issacharoff concludes by noting that Hamas has informed the mediators that it could not find the bodies of nine of the abductees killed in the war, meaning there are nine "Israeli" families without bodies to bury. He affirms that the government of the occupation must insist on recovering these bodies in the coming months, warning against repeating the scenario of the family of the soldier Hadar Goldin, which is still waiting, eleven years later, to receive his body.
