Khaberni - When Fernando and Patricia Escobedo moved to the Willoz neighborhood, a posh area in El Paso, Texas, 25 years ago, children were everywhere.
About half the homes on their street were inhabited by children, and the couple's twin daughters, then little, used to ride their tiny bikes outside with other neighborhood kids.
Now the twins are in college, and the neighborhood looks completely different, with the phenomenon of children migrating from American cities amid a demographic crisis mainly characterized by declining fertility and birth rates, according to an analysis by "Wall Street Journal".
With the U.S. fertility rate falling to record lows according to a previous report by the "New York Times", the number of children under 18 is declining across the United States.
This decline is particularly noticeable in major cities, according to an analysis conducted by the "Wall Street Journal".
The newspaper found that the number of children under the age of eighteen living in major American cities decreased by 6% over the past decade, compared to a decrease of 1% nationwide.
This drop is particularly sharp among families with young children, as the number of children under five in major cities decreased by 15%, compared to a decrease of 7% nationwide.
Even cities that are experiencing population growth are seeing a decline in the number of children.
The number of children decreased in about two-thirds of the 38 American cities, each with a population exceeding 500,000 people.
The "Wall Street Journal" analyzed population census data from 2015 to 2024, which are the most recent data available.
Families with children attribute their decision to move from cities to concerns related to costs, safety, and quality of life.
This decrease is also contributed to by the increasing number of people who choose not to have children, for fear of financial implications and the compromises that may arise from starting a family. This decrease is observed in cities at various economic levels.
San Jose has the highest percentage
In San Jose, California, where the average family income is nearly double the national average, the number of children under the age of five declined by 34% over the past decade, a higher percentage than any other large city.
The cost of child care in this city is about $25,000 annually per child, with couples living in concern about the state's mandatory vaccination laws.
In cities with relatively reasonable living costs, the number of children decreased by 15% in Albuquerque, New Mexico, and 11% in Milwaukee.
City economies feel the shift
City economies are beginning to feel this shift, as families are a significant contributor to the city's tax base, and middle-class families in particular stimulate the demand for reasonably-priced goods, benefiting everyone.
The decrease in the number of children means less support for public schools, which are often among the largest employers in many cities, and also means tough choices with declining student numbers in classrooms.
Some municipalities offer free child care, but it is unclear whether this is sufficient to persuade people to have children or keep their families.
After the financial crisis in 2008-2009, people settled in cities because they were a hub for good jobs.
However, with the wider economic growth in the late second millennium, families began to move in search of better opportunities elsewhere..
The decline in the number of children in cities started in 2017 and aggravated with the COVID-19 pandemic, as the pandemic facilitated remote work, prompting many to reassess their lifestyles. Some moved to the suburbs, or even to more distant areas.
The decline in birth rates is also a major factor, as the number of births in the United States decreased by 9% over the past decade, largely due to the decrease in the number of women giving birth in their teens and twenties.
Nationally, the birth rate is declining even more sharply among Hispanic women, who make up a significant proportion of the population in some cities.
An analysis showed a decline in birth rates in large urban counties by 18% between 2010 and 2024, marking the largest recorded decrease among all types of counties.
Among the 38 American cities with populations exceeding 500,000, the "Wall Street Journal" found that 13 cities experienced growth in the number of children.
These cities, most of which are in the "Sun Belt" region, have relatively reasonable living costs for middle-class families.
These cities saw a 7% increase in the number of children during the past decade, while their total population grew by 12%.
While 17 other large cities saw population growth, the number of children residing in them declined.
