Amidst the continually evolving and complex geopolitical landscape, the relationship between the United States and Iran exemplifies international relations characterized by tension and competition, as well as periods of both direct and indirect confrontation. With each escalation or de-escalation in this relationship, regional and international systems experience profound shifts, often benefiting third parties who were not initially central to the conflict. In the context of recent developments, it can be said that the end of the most intense era of American-Iranian confrontation, or at least its reduction to manageable levels, has resulted in an unexpected winner: Turkey. Ankara has skillfully exploited changing dynamics, benefiting from the US focus on the Iranian dossier and increasing economic pressures on Tehran, to pursue a path enhancing its regional influence and status as a key player in the Middle East.
The relationship between Washington and Tehran has long been characterized by deep-seated animosity, starting from the Islamic Revolution in 1979 and leading up to comprehensive economic sanctions and mutual military threats. This ongoing conflict, whether cold or heated, has drained both parties' resources and kept them engaged in a potential nuclear arms race, also exacerbating instability in the region. Meanwhile, Turkey, a regional power with a long history and strategic presence, has been observing these dynamics with an expert eye, relying on a flexible and multifaceted foreign policy.
When tensions between the United States and Iran intensified, especially under the administration of Donald Trump, which withdrew from the nuclear deal and imposed harsh sanctions, Tehran began to feel immense pressure. These pressures were not limited to the economic aspect but also extended to its increasing diplomatic isolation. During this time, Turkey found its opportunity to engage with Iran in ways that were previously risky. Ankara sought to play the role of mediator, not necessarily to achieve lasting peace, but to maintain open communication channels with Tehran, thus enhancing its trade and economic relations. Turkey also benefited from the lack of a clear and stable American vision towards the region, which allowed it to fill a strategic vacuum.
From a security perspective, the reduced direct threat of war between the United States and Iran means lower security risks in the region, which directly benefits Turkey. The high tensions between these two countries often posed a threat to Turkish security, either due to the potential spread of conflict to its borders or because of its impact on the regional stability that Turkey relies on to achieve its economic and political goals.
The end of the intense period of American-Iranian confrontation, or at least its decline, did not necessarily mean the restoration of peace and stability in the region. Instead, this new dynamic has created a strategic vacuum that Turkey has skillfully exploited. Through its flexible policies, ability to maneuver between major powers, and enhancement of its economic and military influence, Turkey has today become a regional player that cannot be ignored. Amid the preoccupations of the great powers with other challenges, and with the reduced intensity of direct tensions between Washington and Tehran, Turkey dominates the scene, capitalizing on every opportunity to enhance its status as a dominant regional power.
