Professor Dr. Amjad Alfahoum
The Jordanian economy does not move in a vacuum, and its behavior cannot be interpreted through the mere logic of abstract numbers, detached from a regional environment that influences trade, tourism, investment, and supply chains. Amidst a turbulent environment, Jordan continues to present an economic model based on disciplined resilience rather than rapid surges, as reflected by data from the Central Bank of Jordan indicating that the real GDP growth rate approached 2.7% in the first half of 2025 compared to about 2.3% in the same period of the previous year. These figures do not signify a qualitative leap but rather a gradual and measured improvement, affirming that the economy is moving steadily, albeit below developmental aspirations.
Hence, it can be said that the Jordanian economy does not suffer from a recession in the traditional sense, but at the same time, it has not yet reached a stage of momentum capable of making a significant impact on the labor market and income levels. According to the General Statistics Department, the unemployment rate fell to about 16.1% in the fourth quarter of 2025, a notable improvement in trend, but still reflecting a gap between economic growth and its ability to generate sufficient job opportunities, especially with the continuous influx of youth into the labor market.
In this context, a fundamental issue emerges that the challenge is no longer linked to the economy's ability to endure, but to its ability to transform. Growth based on financial stability, cautious spending, and some traditional sectors provides an important protective umbrella, but it is insufficient for building a high-value productive economy. Hence, there is a need to reorient the growth compass towards more productive sectors, such as advanced industries, technology, smart agriculture, high-value tourism, and cross-border digital services.
This perspective is reinforced by estimates from the World Bank, which report that Jordan's economy is expected to grow by about 2.8% in 2025, driven by a relatively balanced performance across the industrial, services, and agricultural sectors. While this balance is significant, it remains within the range of moderate growth that requires additional momentum to transition into qualitative growth capable of effecting structural change in the economy.
On the other hand, monetary stability appears as one of the major strengths in the economic landscape, with foreign currency reserves at the Central Bank reaching about 24.6 billion dollars at the end of 2025, covering approximately 8.8 months of the kingdom’s imports of goods and services. This level of reserves clearly demonstrates the capacity to absorb external shocks, maintain exchange rate stability, and boost investor confidence, providing a fundamental pillar for any sustainable developmental path.
However, a comprehensive scientific analysis necessitates distinguishing between the concepts of stability and transformation; the former is a necessary condition to ensure economic balance but is not an end in itself. If growth continues to hover around approximately 3%, its social impact will remain limited, particularly concerning unemployment reduction and improving living standards. Consequently, the question shifts from "how much has the economy grown?" to "how has it grown? For whose benefit? And with what productive and employment impact?"
In light of this, it becomes clear that the future of the Jordanian economy cannot be built on expenditure alone but requires re-engineering the relationship between education and the labor market, investment and production, and between provinces and value chains. An investment that does not create knowledge, a job, or export capacity will have a limited impact, whereas investment directed towards productive and tech sectors has the potential to generate sustainable added value.
Therefore, Jordan stands today at a pivotal moment, offering it the opportunity to leverage its political, monetary, and institutional stability as a springboard towards a more dynamic economy. An economy that has proven its resilience in the face of crises possesses the attributes to advance to a more developed stage, provided it shifts from managing pressures to creating opportunities. At this point, precisely, lies the takeaway; Jordan needs not just an economy that survives, but one that confidently and competently builds its future.
