Global maritime straits form strategic chokepoints vital for international trade and maritime transport.
Some of these waterways have ultimate importance due to their geographic location which connects major water bodies, and the control or influence over these straits can be a double-edged sword that could significantly affect global supply chains and economic stability. Many of these vital straits are centered in countries with a Muslim majority, raising questions about their potential impact on the global economy if they were to be closed or strategically utilized.
These straits include the Bab el-Mandeb, the Strait of Gibraltar, the Strait of Hormuz, the Suez Canal, the Strait of Malacca, and the Bosporus Strait.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden, is one of the world's busiest maritime passages. Yemen, Eritrea, and Djibouti control its shores, placing a large part of it under the control of predominantly Muslim countries. Approximately 3.3 million barrels of oil pass through Bab el-Mandeb daily, in addition to huge quantities of commercial goods headed to Europe, Asia, and Africa. If Bab el-Mandeb were closed, it would completely disrupt ship movement, forcing tankers to take longer and more costly routes around the Cape of Good Hope, leading to a sharp rise in energy and shipping prices, significant delays in the arrival of goods, and thus destabilizing global markets.
Similarly, the Strait of Gibraltar, which connects the Mediterranean Sea with the Atlantic Ocean, is an important strategic passage. Spain and Morocco oversee this strait, where Morocco, a Muslim country, plays a significant role in controlling its traffic. A large part of trade between Europe and Africa passes through it, along with ship movements to Mediterranean ports. Closing this strait would mean a complete redirection of trade movement, with associated rises in costs and travel times, negatively affecting companies that rely on these trade routes.
The importance of the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea, cannot be overlooked. Oman and Iran control this strait, with Iran, a Muslim country, being a significant force in controlling its traffic. About 20% of the global oil consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz, along with huge quantities of liquefied natural gas. Any closure or disruption to traffic in Hormuz would have catastrophic repercussions on global energy prices and would push markets towards a state of uncertainty and recession.
The Suez Canal, located in Egypt, is a major lifeline for global trade, connecting the Mediterranean Sea with the Red Sea. Although Egypt is a Muslim country, the canal is managed by the Suez Canal Authority, a public agency. About 12% of the global trade volume, including a large percentage of oil and non-oil shipments between Asia and Europe, passes through the canal. Closing the Suez Canal has shown how fragile global supply chains are. If it were to be closed deliberately, ships would revert to the long route around Africa, doubling transportation costs and arrival times, and affecting global inventories.
The Strait of Malacca, located between the Malay Peninsula and Sumatra (Indonesia), is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting the Indian Ocean with the Pacific Ocean. Malaysia and Indonesia, two Muslim countries, control parts of it. Approximately a third of global trade movement and half of the oil shipments headed to East Asia pass through it. Its closure would be a severe blow to economies reliant on trade across the Pacific, leading to widespread disruptions in supply chains.
As for the Bosporus, which connects the Black Sea with the Sea of Marmara, and then the Mediterranean Sea through the Dardanelles, it is a vital strategic passage for Russia and the countries around the Black Sea. Turkey, a Muslim country, controls this strait. Large amounts of oil, gas, and agricultural goods from Russia and Eastern European countries pass through it. Any restrictions on traffic in the Bosporus would directly affect energy and commodity supplies to several countries, potentially leading to price fluctuations and shortages in some markets.
Strategically investing in these straits, instead of closing them, could transform them into tools for economic growth and development for the controlling countries. These nations could benefit from transit fees, the development of port infrastructure, and attracting investments in logistics and industries related to maritime transport. They could also play a larger role in shaping global trade by offering facilities and developing policies that serve their economic interests. However, any investment or policies related to these straits must take into account global economic interests and avoid unilateral actions that could destabilize.
On the other hand, closing these straits poses an existential threat to the global economy. The consequences would not be limited to rising oil and gas prices but would also include increased production costs, scarcity of goods, and the shutdown of many industries that depend on continuous supplies. Companies would be forced to seek costly alternatives, which could lead to a radical restructuring of the global trade map. Such actions could cause a global economic recession, political tensions, and difficulties for developing countries in particular.
In conclusion, the water straits under the control or influence of Muslim countries are vital points for the global economy. Closing any of these straits, such as Bab el-Mandeb, Gibraltar, Hormuz, Suez, Malacca, or Bosporus, would have severe consequences that extend beyond the concerned nations, affecting global supply chains, energy prices, industrial production, and economic stability on a broad scale. Conversely, strategic investment in these maritime passages could open broad prospects for economic development for these countries, while ensuring a balance that respects global interests and maintains the continuity of vital trade movement. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for policymakers and business leaders worldwide.
