Khaberni - Israel is apprehensive about losing one of its most prominent allies within the European Union, the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, amid signs of his diminishing chances in the crucial legislative elections scheduled for tomorrow, Sunday.
Orbán (62 years old), who has been governing Hungary for 16 years, faces stiff electoral competition, as polls indicate that his party "Fidesz" is trailing behind the opposition "Tisa" party led by Peter Magyar.
The Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth revealed today, Saturday, that Israeli officials are closely following the Hungarian elections, warning that Orbán's loss would represent a major blow to Israel.
The Israeli newspaper stated that there is a prevalent feeling in Hungary that Orbán needs to pull off "a surprise at the last minute," noting that he secured a decisive victory in the previous 2022 elections despite leading polls suggesting his competitor was ahead, but this time the situation seems more perilous, according to the newspaper.
What is Israel Worried About?
Regarding the impact of his possible victory on the relations with Tel Aviv, Yedioth Ahronoth pointed out that Israeli political circles believe that Hungary under Magyar's leadership would not resemble Spain or Ireland, which have taken some of the most stringent positions against Israel in the European Union, according to the newspaper.
It added that Israel is worried about Magyar's electoral promise to secure 15 billion dollars of European Union funding for Hungary, as to achieve this, the opposition candidate would need to reach an agreement with Brussels, which likely means ending Hungary's veto power on decisions targeting Israel.
As a result - the newspaper continued - Israel might lose its last line of defense in the European Union against sanctions, which require the consent of all 27 member states, noting that Hungary has repeatedly obstructed such initiatives previously, adding that "this support may now disappear if Orbán loses.
It mentioned that the European Union has often refrained from issuing collective condemnations of Israel due to Hungary's use of the veto.
The newspaper warned that if Magyar wins, it is expected to end this situation, with the European Union subsequently issuing unified statements supported by all its members.
These unified positions may target issues like settlement building, settler violence, and unusual military operations like the recent strike in Beirut, while Israel will no longer be able to rely on Hungary to stir divisions within the European bloc, according to the newspaper.
Implications for Netanyahu
Regarding Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, an Orbán defeat means losing an exceptional ally on the international scene, alongside American President Donald Trump, according to Yedioth Ahronoth.
Last Friday, Trump vowed to harness the full economic might of the United States to assist Hungary if voters support his ally Orbán in the elections, a move that irked Magyar, who accused Washington of intervening in the elections.
Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform: "Go out and vote for Viktor Orbán," describing him as a "true friend, fighter, and winner," adding, "I'm with him all the way."
The Israeli newspaper said that during the election campaign, Netanyahu sought to support Orbán, sending a video message to a party event in Budapest and dispatching his son Yair to praise Orbán and express solidarity with Hungary.
Mid-last year, a panel of judges at the International Criminal Court referred Hungary to a court monitoring organization for failing to arrest Netanyahu when he visited Budapest, stating that this move undermines the court's ability to bring suspects to justice.
The Israeli Prime Minister received a warm welcome from Orbán during an official visit about a year ago in April , challenging an arrest warrant issued by the court.
Sensitive Files
If Magyar wins, it is expected that Hungary will reconsider sensitive legal positions, including stopping the withdrawal from the International Criminal Court, which means a continued commitment to arrest warrants, including those against Netanyahu, potentially preventing his visit to Budapest.
Yedioth Ahronoth mentioned in this regard that the Magyar party has already announced that it would halt Hungary's withdrawal from the International Criminal Court, a process initiated by Orbán in May 2025 and scheduled to be completed in June .
It continued, stating that Hungary might also withdraw its request to the International Court of Justice, which opposes claims of genocide committed by Israel in Gaza.
Ongoing European Balances
Nevertheless, Israeli estimates indicate that the potential shift in Hungary's position may not reach the level of positions of countries like Spain or Ireland, with ongoing more conservative stances from influential countries such as Germany and Italy, which may limit any collective European escalation against Israel, according to the Israeli newspaper.
However, ultimately, an Orbán loss could end one of Israel's most prominent lines of defense within the European Union and usher in a more complicated phase in Tel Aviv's relations with the bloc.
