Khaberni - As the military escalation in the Middle East enters its fifth week, the UN warnings of deep economic and social repercussions that could disrupt the developmental path in the region are increasing.
Estimates by the United Nations Development Programme indicate that Middle Eastern economies could lose between 3% and 6% of their total gross domestic product, equivalent to losses ranging from 120 to 194 billion dollars, a figure that exceeds the total growth achieved during the last year.
The program explained that these estimates reveal structural fragility in the region’s economies, making even a short-term military escalation capable of causing widespread economic and social effects that could last for extended periods.
Regional Impact Variances
The repercussions do not stop there, as unemployment rates are expected to rise by about 4 percentage points, with the loss of about 3.6 million jobs, which exceeds the number of jobs added during the previous year.
This economic shock could also push an additional 4 million people into poverty, amid increasing pressures on living standards and social stability.
According to estimates, the Gulf States and the Mashreq Arab region will be most affected, with GDP losses ranging from 2.5% to 8.5% in the Gulf States and between 2.5% and 7.8% in the Mashreq countries, due to their significant reliance on trade and fluctuations in the energy markets.
The program noted that the assessment was based on a model that simulates the effects of a conflict lasting four weeks, through channels including increased trade costs, reduced productivity, and capital losses.
Rising Poverty Rates
As for poverty, the Mashreq countries lead the scene, with poverty rates expected to increase by about 5%, meaning that about 3.3 million additional people will fall below the poverty line, representing more than 75% of the total increase in the region.
In North Africa, the impacts are less severe, with growth forecasts barely exceeding 0.4%, yet this does not alleviate the ongoing economic pressures.
With the crisis continuing, the region faces a challenging test in containing these economic and social repercussions and maintaining some degree of stability amid a volatile regional landscape.
