Khaberni - The end of the qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup is approaching, and during the next week, the identities of the last six teams qualified to participate in Canada, Mexico, and the United States will be clarified this June.
In Europe, 16 teams compete in the final play-off, with only four to qualify, while six teams compete for two World Cup spots in the intercontinental play-offs.
The global statistics website Opta has allocated a large space for predicting the advantage percentages of each team in the upcoming matches.
European Play-off:
Path One: The winner will join World Cup Group Two along with Canada, Qatar, and Switzerland.
In this path, Wales is in a relatively comfortable position as it prepares to face Bosnia at home in the first semifinal, giving it a clear advantage of over 60% against only 18% for its opponent.
But all eyes are primarily on Italy, which is racing against time to avoid a third consecutive World Cup absence. “The Azzurri,” absent from both the 2018 and 2022 editions, enter the second semifinal, supported by a large advantage of 72% against Northern Ireland. And if things go as predicted, the Italian giant might clash with Wales in Cardiff, in a match that will not be easy at all.
Path Two: The winner will join World Cup Group Six along with Tunisia, the Netherlands, and Japan.
In this path, Ukraine faces Sweden in the first semifinal, and despite its poor record in previous knockout qualifiers, it is still favored with a 56.5% chance against 21% for Sweden.
In the second semifinal, Poland faces Albania, with Poland being slightly more favored at 56.6%, while Albania faces a significant challenge in hoping to qualify for the first time.
Path Three: The winner will join World Cup Group Four along with Australia, the United States, and Paraguay.
In this path, Slovakia faces Kosovo, and a win would be historic for Kosovo if achieved, but Slovakia is favored with a 53% chance.
As for Turkey, favored with a 63.6% chance, it faces Romania in the second semifinal, and is considered the closest to qualifying from this path due to its experience and strong level.
Path Four: The winner will join Group One along with Mexico, South Africa, and South Korea.
In this path, the Czech Republic faces Ireland, with the Czechs being slightly more favored at 51.2%, while Denmark, the strongest in the second semifinal with a 71.3% chance against North Macedonia, will face a tough test in the final if it qualifies.
Global Play-off:
Path One: The winner will join World Cup Group Eleven along with Portugal, Uzbekistan, and Colombia.
In this path, New Caledonia faces Jamaica, with Jamaica being more favored with a 52.5% chance, compared to 24.3% for New Caledonia. The winner between them will face a much stronger opponent, the Democratic Republic of Congo, ranked 48th globally.
Path Two: The winner will join World Cup Group Nine along with Norway, France, and Senegal.
In this path, Bolivia faces Suriname, and the winner will face Iraq in the final, with Iraq favored according to Opta, having strong chances of returning to the World Cup for the first time since 1986.
While the predictions from the supercomputer "Opta" tip the balance in favor of the stronger and more experienced teams, football remains true to its traditions, where nothing is certain, and surprises are always ready to upend the balance at any moment.
