Khaberni - The relationship between the Hijri calendar and the Gregorian calendar is a matter of continuous interest to Muslims, especially concerning the timing of fundamental acts of worship such as fasting and Hajj. The Hijri calendar is based on the lunar cycle, while the Gregorian calendar depends on the solar cycle, leading to an annual variance of about eleven days. This variance is the root cause of the accumulation of makeup or missed fasting days in some years, which may challenge Muslims to fast nearly two months in one Gregorian year. In the context of astronomical predictions, 2030 stands out as a year expected to witness significant accumulation in fasting during Ramadan, a phenomenon deserving scientific and jurisprudential analysis and interpretation.
To understand the phenomenon, one must first comprehend the mechanics of both calendars. The lunar Hijri year comprises 354 or 355 days, while the solar Gregorian year consists of 365 or 366 days. With an annual difference of about eleven days, Ramadan, advancing annually in the Gregorian cycle, returns to the same Gregorian date approximately every 33 lunar years. This cycle ensures that Ramadan passes through all four seasons over about thirty-three years.
The fundamental reason behind Muslims fasting for two months during 2030, or nearly so, is due to the overlap of the beginnings and ends of Hijri months related to making up missed Ramadan days with the onset of the new Ramadan in the same Gregorian year. In years when Ramadan occurs at the beginning or end of the Gregorian year, this overlap occurs. For example, if Ramadan begins in late December of a Gregorian year, it might extend into January of the following Gregorian year. However, the issue here relates to making up for missed days when Ramadan advances in the Gregorian cycle, as the makeup days (which those who had a valid excuse must complete) usually fall in the months preceding or following the month. In 2030, Ramadan is expected to fall in January and February of the Gregorian months approximately. Suppose a Muslim fasted Ramadan 2030 in January and February. If this Muslim had broken their fast in the preceding Ramadan (Ramadan 2029) and their makeup remained pending, they might have to fast soon before the next Ramadan (Ramadan 2031).
The most common scenario explaining fasting two months in one Gregorian year involves the delayed makeup days coinciding directly with the beginning of the subsequent Ramadan. If Ramadan 2030 occurs at the beginning of the Gregorian year (January/February), and this coincides with remaining makeup days from Ramadan 2029 not being fasted until later, the Muslim may find themselves needing to fast the remaining makeup days (which could be up to 29 days if the makeup was not deferred for a valid consecutive excuse) and then start fasting Ramadan 2030.
To assess the challenge in 2030, astronomical calculations indicate that Ramadan will begin in early January 2030 and end in early February 2030. If a Muslim had delayed making up Ramadan 2029 (which had occurred in late 2029 or early 2030) until the last permissible moment legally before entering Ramadan 2030, they would be fasting nearly two consecutive months. Suppose the makeup was obligatory, and there was no valid religious excuse for its continuation; the makeup of Ramadan 2029 (occurring in December 2029 or January 2030) would consume a substantial part of January 2030, followed directly by the fasting of Ramadan 2030. This accumulation translates to nearly two Gregorian months of actual fasting in the same individual's record during that Gregorian year.
Religiously, there is no obligation to align the fasting of Ramadan with a specific Gregorian year. Islam governs its worship by the lunar calendar. Therefore, fasting for two months in one Gregorian year is an inevitable result of the flexibility of the lunar calendar, which shifts through the seasons and months of the Gregorian year. The reason is not a new legislation or a freshly issued fatwa but a natural side effect of the lunar cycle passing through the solar cycle.
This challenge raises questions about the nature of fasting under changing climatic conditions. If Ramadan falls in the summer (as it did in the years just before 2030), the makeup fasting adds to it, increasing the hardship. However, in 2030, Ramadan occurring in the winter (January/February) will be relatively comfortable in terms of temperature, but it will be long in terms of daylight hours in some northern regions, even though the average fasting hours are generally shorter in winter.
In conclusion, the phenomenon of Muslims fasting for two months (or nearly so) in 2030 is merely a clear manifestation of the relative movement between the Hijri and Gregorian calendars. The direct cause is the coincidence of the date for making up the previous Ramadan with the beginning of the next Ramadan within the timeframe of one Gregorian year, as a result of Ramadan advancing in the annual Gregorian cycle. This astronomical phenomenon reminds Muslims of the flexibility of their legislation and its connection to the lunar cycle, affirming that the religious rulings remain constant no matter how the surrounding Gregorian dates change.
