The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees expects the return of approximately a million Syrian refugees to their homeland in 2026, amidst the gradual recovery witnessed by Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on December 8, 2024.
Representative of the Commissioner in Syria, Gonzalo Vargas Llosa, stated that approximately 1.3 million Syrian refugees have already returned to their homeland since December 2024, in addition to about two million internally displaced persons who have returned to their original areas.
Llosa explained that this means that more than 3 million Syrians returned during a relatively short period to areas in a country devastated by war on economic, structural, and service levels.
The UN official said that he was in Syria a few months before the fall of the former regime, and witnessed closely the political transition phase in the country, noting that the fear which dominated the Syrian society quickly subsided, making way for a broad sense of hope.
He stated that he moved with his team on December 9, 2024, to the Lebanese border, where he saw thousands of Syrians spontaneously return to their country after more than 14 years of forced refuge.
Llosa estimated the return of about a million additional people in 2026, meaning that more than 4 million Syrians will return within a two-year period, pointing out that this significant volume of return is carried out under extremely difficult circumstances, making international financial support an urgent and critical issue to ensure stability and prevent exacerbation of humanitarian crises.
In assessing the current stage, Llosa considered that what Syria is experiencing is a complex transitional process that will take time, amid the widespread devastation caused by the war over 14 years.
He said that it is natural for the country to be economically and structurally devastated after a long war, and recovery will not be immediate.
Llosa noted that Syria had been isolated from the international scene for more than 14 years, before re-establishing relations with a large number of countries within just one year, which he considered a highly significant development.
The UN official emphasized that seeing large numbers of Syrians returning to their homes is a positive indicator, but significant improvement in the economic situation will take time, necessitating coordinated and sustained international support.
Llosa expressed hope that lifting sanctions would open the door to extensive investments from the private sector, a necessary step for the reconstruction and development phase, elaborating that the Commission and its partners provide direct support to returnees, especially in reissuing official documents.
He pointed out that more than a quarter of the returnees lack basic documents such as personal identities or ownership deeds.
