Khaberni - Experts anticipate slight increases in fuel prices with the pricing of the upcoming December, predicting increases ranging between 5 and 20 fils per liter, driven by global market fluctuations and supply pressures during the winter season.
Energy expert Hashem Aql stated that Jordan's fuel pricing is directly tied to the movements of crude oil prices and derivatives in the global markets, alongside transport costs and taxes.
He explained that the Kingdom's reliance on imports, which account for up to 95%, makes it vulnerable to any changes in the international market, amid expectations of a further global increase ranging between 1 and 3% next month.
Aql pointed out that reduced global profit margins for refining operations increase the cost of derivatives, in addition to the decline in Russian diesel supplies due to international sanctions, which reduces the global supply at a time when winter demand for diesel for heating and transportation increases in the northern hemisphere.
Seasonal maintenance of refineries at the end of the year also temporarily reduces production, which drives prices up. He added that geopolitical tensions and sanctions imposed on Russia - the world's largest supplier of diesel - enhance market volatility, alongside the rise in global demand as economies recover, particularly in Asia and Europe, despite attempts by OPEC+ to achieve balance by increasing production.
Oil expert Fahd Al-Fayez expects a limited increase in gasoline prices for both types by amounts ranging between 5 and 10 fils per liter, directly impacted by oil prices, derivatives, and shipping costs.
Conversely, Al-Fayez predicted that diesel may see a higher increase, ranging between 15 and 20 fils per liter, due to disruptions in the global supply of Russian diesel and increasing winter demand.
In turn, energy affairs specialist economist Amer Al-Shoubaki expects the government to raise the price of diesel by about 2.5 piasters per liter (equivalent to half a dinar per tank), and to raise the price of 90 and 95 octane gasoline by about 5 fils per liter in the December pricing, which coincides with the start of the "winter quadrature" typically marked by an increase in consumption.
Al-Shoubaki noted that the global monthly average oil price decreased from 65 to 63 dollars per barrel during November, yet the rise in gasoline and diesel prices globally is due to refining bottlenecks, decreased Russian supplies due to Ukrainian strikes, seasonal refinery maintenance, and increased winter demand.
He highlighted that this paradox – a decrease in crude oil versus an increase in derivative prices – sometimes occurs due to different dynamics in the derivatives market, indicating that the pricing committee's calculations are based on the Platts newsletter for derivative prices, while Brent crude generally serves only as a broad indicator and not as a direct determinant of the local price.
The government had reduced fuel prices for the current month; the price of 90 octane gasoline was reduced to approximately 845 fils per liter instead of 855 fils, 95 octane gasoline to about 1075 fils instead of 1080 fils, with diesel price fixed at 685 fils per liter and kerosene at 620 fils, and maintaining the price of household gas cylinders (12.5 kg) at 7 dinars.
