Khaberni - Experts in the oil sector anticipate the government will lower the prices of oil derivatives locally in next month's pricing scheme, with decreases reaching up to 2%, compared to current prices.
These predictions come despite a 5.5% drop in Brent crude oil prices over the past three weeks, compared to the average of the previous month.
The average barrel price during the first 3 weeks of the current month was $63.3, compared to $67.1, the average price last month.
Oil expert Fahad Al-Fayez said, "Preliminary estimates indicate that the prices of oil derivatives for November are trending downwards following the decline in Brent crude prices in the global markets."
According to the estimates, Al-Fayez noted that the price of diesel is expected to see the largest decrease, falling within the range of 1.5 to 2 fils per liter (by about 2%). As for gasoline types 90 and 95, they are likely to decline by about 1 to 1.5 fils per liter (by about 1.5%).
Oil expert Hashem Aql said, "The prices of oil derivatives in Jordan so far indicate a slight expected decrease with the November pricing, predicting a 1 fils per liter decrease for octane 90 gasoline (by 1%), and the same decrease for octane 95 gasoline (by 0.9%), while diesel price remains unchanged."
He explained that these indicators are still preliminary especially as there is about a week left until the end of the month, leaving room for material changes in the global energy markets that could affect final prices.
He mentioned that a decrease in Brent crude typically leads to a decline in refined oil product prices such as gasoline and diesel, but this reflection does not occur immediately as it is influenced by other factors such as refining costs, transportation, taxes, and exchange rates. He expected that the current price decrease could be reflected in the November pricing, with gasoline prices in some markets potentially reaching the lowest levels since the COVID-19 pandemic, affected by the global dip in crude oil prices.
He indicated the major factors that led to the oil price drop over the month, most notably the increase in global supply due to higher OPEC+ production and the return of U.S. supplies to high levels, coupled with a slowdown in global demand due to economic recession fears in the U.S. and China.
Trade tensions, increased oil inventories, and the easing of geopolitical tensions in certain areas also played an additional role in depressing prices.
He pointed out that if the global supply excess continues, these dynamics could lead prices to fall below $50 per barrel in some scenarios.
Economic researcher specialized in oil and energy matters, Amer Al-Shoubaki, anticipated that the government would reduce the prices of gasoline types 90 and 95 by 1.5 fils per liter (by 1.5%) while keeping diesel and kerosene prices stable in next month's pricing, despite the rise in oil prices during the last week. Al-Shoubaki said, "The global monthly average of crude oil prices dropped from $67 to $63 per barrel with a decrease of about 6%, although the prices of refined oil derivatives have maintained relative stability due to the maintenance season in world refineries and the scarcity of refining capacities." Al-Shoubaki also noted that the price of oil per barrel dropped by about 20% since the beginning of this year, while these decreases have not significantly reflected on local prices due to current government policies, particularly the fixed flat tax applied since 2019.
It is worth mentioning that the government increased the sale price of octane 90 gasoline this month to 855 fils/liter from 850 fils/liter, octane 95 gasoline to 1080 fils/liter from 1075 fils/liter, and the diesel price to 685 fils/liter from 675 fils/liter, while continuing to fix the price of kerosene at 620 fils/liter.
