Khaberni - The International Monetary Fund confirmed that the ongoing economic reforms and efforts to achieve macroeconomic stability, along with increased spending on infrastructure, will support the medium-term growth prospects of the Jordanian economy, noting that the economic activity in the kingdom has shown resilience against the repercussions of the war in the Middle East, at a time when it maintained its growth forecasts for Jordan unchanged, despite reducing regional growth expectations.
The Fund, in its report on the Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia issued Thursday, maintained its growth forecasts for the Jordanian economy at 2.7% in 2026 and accelerating to 3.1% in 2027, unchanged compared to its forecasts issued last April, and raised its growth estimate for the past year to 2.8%, compared to a previous estimate of 2.7%.
The stabilization of Jordan's growth forecasts comes at a time when the Fund lowered its growth expectations for the economies of the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan by 2.7 percentage points, from an expected growth of 1.4% to a contraction of 1.3% in 2026, due to the ongoing repercussions of the war and disruptions in energy production and trade.
- Resilience of the Jordanian economy
The report indicated that the growth of the Jordanian economy generally maintained a pace close to the levels of the second half of 2025, among a group of economies including Egypt, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia, which showed resilience against the repercussions of the regional conflict.
The Fund clarified that oil-importing economies demonstrated greater resilience compared to the oil-exporting countries directly affected by the conflict, supported by robust domestic demand, worker remittances, tourism activity, and supportive financial conditions.
The Fund expected that the medium-term economic growth in Jordan would benefit from increased spending on infrastructure, alongside the reforms and macroeconomic stability efforts, including those within the programs supported by the International Monetary Fund, noting that these factors would support growth in a number of regional economies.
It also speculated that oil-importing economies would benefit from the fading shock associated with the deterioration of trade terms, with continued support provided by worker remittances and tourism to economic activity.
- Jordan as an exception in trade balance performance
The International Monetary Fund described Jordan as a "clear exception" among the region's oil-importing economies, after trade balances for goods in most of these economies worsened during the past period of 2026, while Jordan's trade balance performance was characterized by improvement, driven primarily by strong exports.
In the tourism sector, the Fund confirmed that Jordan witnessed a limited decline in tourism activity in the early stages of the war in the Middle East, before recording a recovery according to the latest data, supported by strong travel movement within the region.
It noted that tourism in most of the region's oil-importing economies demonstrated resilience, unlike the decline experienced by the Gulf economies directly affected by the war.
In monetary policy, the report indicated that Jordan adjusted interest rates in September last year, in parallel with movements by the US Federal Reserve, among a group of economies with currencies pegged to the dollar.
It also indicated that Jordanian monetary authorities were among those that warned of the risks of rising inflation due to energy and food prices and exchange rate pressures, with the need to be vigilant against the transmission of these shocks into broader price increases.
The Fund confirmed its continued engagement in economic programs supported by it in Jordan, as part of its efforts to provide financing, policy advice, and capacity building for countries in the region.
Regional recovery conditional on the war's recession
On the regional level, the International Monetary Fund expects a recovery in the economies of the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan with growth reaching 6.6% in 2027, primarily driven by the restoration of oil and gas production and trade movement in the energy-exporting countries directly affected by the war.
It expects the economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council to contract by 4.8% in 2026, before recovering with a growth of 9.1% in 2027, with the restoration of production capacities and the repair of damaged infrastructure.
Conversely, the Fund raised its growth forecasts for the emerging market and middle-income oil-importing economies in the region to 4.2% in 2026, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from April forecasts, while expecting the economies of the Caucasus and Central Asia to grow by 5.2% in 2026 and 5% in 2027.
It explained that the projections for regional recovery are based on the assumption of a decline in the intensity of the conflict at the beginning of 2027 and a gradual return of energy production and trade movement to normal by the end of the year, with continuing risks associated with production disruptions, trade routes, and rising borrowing costs.
The report emphasized the importance of continuing structural reforms, increasing productivity, diversifying economic activity and trade, and enhancing macroeconomic stability, which would support the region's economies' ability to withstand shocks and achieve sustainable growth in the long term.
