Khaberni - The decline in the population in Japan is not a new issue, as the country has been accustomed to this continuous pace for 17 years, but the most serious event for the data of 2026 released by the Ministry of Interior is that the country recorded its lowest level in birth rates since data collection began in 1899, at a time when the aging crisis threatening the economy and national security is exacerbating.
With the youth's growing disinterest in marriage and declining fertility rates, and the increasing number of elderly people, Japan faces a silent war to secure its defensive fronts and ensure a self-defense force that keeps it safe from becoming an easy target for regional adversaries in Northeast Asia.
Record decline in fertility
The latest data and figures released by the Ministry of Interior ring the alarm bell, as the country recorded a decline in its population for the first time in 42 years, dropping below 120 million in January of the previous year, registering a decrease of 0.76% compared to the previous year.
Although the number of foreign residents reached its highest levels, pushing the total population to 123.76 million, this does not obscure the troubling picture of Japan's demographic reality.
Official data released in early June indicate a record decline in the fertility rate to 1.14 children per woman in 2025, one of the lowest rates in the world, pointing to the demographic crisis in the world's fourth-largest economy.
Japan recorded a birth rate of 671,236 children in 2025, approximately 15,000 less than the previous year, the lowest number since data collection began in 1899, according to figures that are limited to Japanese children born within the country.
Those aged over 65 account for 30% of the country's population, and specialized studies expect this percentage to reach 40% by 2070.
These shifts pose a series of issues, most notably a crisis in the workforce and a sharp increase in social security expenses, along with a decline in the number of working-age people who contribute to taxes.
But what are the direct reasons that lead to the annual decline in the population, and why has Japan failed to curb this demographic downturn?
Singleness, Western-style
The number of Japanese marrying at a later age or preferring singleness is increasing, similar to other advanced economies, marking a significant shift from the traditional values of the conservative society built on the primacy of the family institution.
The annual population and social security survey for 2021, conducted by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, shows that the average number of children per couple has remained relatively stable over the last four decades, indicating that the decline in marriage rates has significantly contributed to the drop in fertility rates.
Studies link these trends to several structural features of Japan's labor market. For instance, the country's work culture has faced criticism due to long working hours, which in some cases exceed 60 hours a week.
Despite efforts by the Japanese government to limit overtime and improve work-life balance, extended working hours remain common in many sectors. This factor is believed to contribute to an imbalance between professional commitments and life necessities, making it increasingly difficult for parents to balance work pressures and child-rearing.
The decrease in workforce size has led to a shortage of labor in multiple sectors, particularly in education, healthcare, and manufacturing, forcing many small and medium businesses to downsize or shut down completely.
Recruitment crisis
The expected decline in Japan's population and its aging are anticipated to transformer Japanese society, but one of the government's major concerns is related to national defense.
The Japanese government approved a record defense budget in 2024 to meet its commitment to increase defense spending to 2% of the gross domestic product by 2027.
However, this increase does not solve the problem related to the size of the forces. The size of the Japanese army is much less than that of its major adversaries in the region, with the army being a tenth the size of China's active forces and a fifth the size of North Korean forces, according to a report by the "Foreign Policy" magazine, published by the Council on Foreign Relations, an American think tank.
This deficiency has long represented a critical weakness for the aspirations of the conservative right-wing camp with the Liberal Party and its nationalist allies who advocate for revising the 1947 peaceful constitution in preparation for building a regular and offensive army capable of repelling regional threats, including developing its missile capabilities and lifting the ban on exporting lethal weapons to allies, plans explicitly supported by the conservative Prime Minister Sanai Takaichi.
According to predictions by the Foreign Policy magazine, if the current demographic trends continue, they may severely restrict recruitment in the Japanese Self-Defense Forces, which already suffer from a chronic lack of personnel, restrict the state's ability to tax the population to fund increased defense spending, and hinder innovation needed for competition in the defense sector.
Despite these proposals and decisions being ineffective:
Using celebrities and anime characters in advertisements to attract younger generations
Increasing the maximum age for enlistment from 26 years to 32 years
And among the disappointing results of these policies, the government failed, for example, in 2023 to achieve its recruitment goal of exceeding 50%.
Encouragement in vain
In fact, over the past three decades, the number of Japanese aged between 18 and 26, the primary target demographic for recruitment, has decreased by about 40%, from 17.43 million in 1994 to 10.2 million in 2024.
The Japanese Ministry of Defense has explicitly acknowledged that the demographic crisis will affect national security. For this reason, in recent years, Japanese leaders have pursued policies to encourage families to have more children, including several decisions:
A plan to double government spending on child care support by 2030
Funding university education for families with three or more children
Supporting parental leave
Launching dating apps to encourage marriage
And other proposed solutions by researchers and analysts include promoting an open-door policy for immigrants. This policy has long been contrary to the stereotypical image of Japan as unwelcoming to foreigners. Some analysts expect that a radical reconsideration of this policy will inject the necessary vitality and energy into the Japanese economy and society.
Despite this solution being frequently proposed to address the demographic decline issue, conservative Prime Minister Sanai Takaichi calls for more stringent measures regarding the arrival of foreigners.
Among the justifications advanced against immigration are that the birth rates of new arrivals might match Japan's, in addition to the anticipated cost of social integration. Regarding military recruitment, only Japanese citizens are allowed to join the Japanese armed forces.
