Khaberni - No significant change occurred in oil prices at Tuesday's settlement, but they are on track to record the biggest quarterly losses since the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, a time when investors are anticipating potential talks between the United States and Iran in Doha amid a tense temporary cease-fire after four months of war.
Brent crude futures for August delivery, which are expiring, fell 0.3% or 23 cents to $72.92 a barrel at settlement, and the price of West Texas Intermediate crude for August delivery fell 1.8% or $1.25, to $69.50 a barrel.
The August Brent crude contract ended trading on Tuesday and will be replaced by the September contract, which is traded at $73.31 a barrel.
Both crudes are nearing the levels they were traded at on February 27, the day before the American-Israeli war on Iran broke out, with Brent crude then settling at $72.48 a barrel and the American crude at $67.02 a barrel.
Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at (UBS), said, "I wouldn't say that the market has excluded the risk premium, but ships that were previously stuck are now available with an increased number of tankers leaving the Gulf, leading to a temporary wave of new supply."
Morgan Stanley bank now anticipates an implicit surplus in the global oil market of 4.8 million barrels per day in 2027.
A Qatari official said that the American envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who arrived in Doha, will not hold a high-level meeting with Iran, casting doubt on the progress made in efforts to permanently stop the war with Iran and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Majed Al-Ansari, spokesperson for the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs in a press briefing, said that technical talks will be held this week on issues including security in the region and these talks may later be referred to a higher level.
The arrival of Jared Kushner, son-in-law to U.S. President Donald Trump, and envoy Steve Witkoff in Doha on Tuesday follows a shootout over the weekend, testing the temporary agreement signed on June 17 between the United States and Iran.
The 14-point agreement grants a 60-day deadline for both parties to negotiate a permanent truce and resolve complex issues, including the future of Iran's nuclear program.
The lack of price movements has kept both crude indicators in a technically oversold territory, with the Brent index in this area for 13 consecutive days, while the West Texas Intermediate index has been there for 11 consecutive days.
The price of Brent crude fell by about 21% in June after it declined by about 19% in May. This represents the largest monthly drop since it fell by a record 55% in March 2020 due to the undermining of demand amidst the COVID-19 pandemic.
The price of Brent fell about 38% in the second quarter after rising 94% in the first quarter. This is the biggest quarter-on-quarter decrease recorded since it fell by a record 66% in the first quarter of 2020. The 94% rise in the previous quarter is the highest since futures jumped by a record 142% in the third quarter of 1990.
