Khaberni - JP Morgan reduced on Wednesday its forecasts for Brent crude prices in the second half of 2026, amid weak oil demand and a decrease in commercial stock withdrawals in OECD countries below expected levels.
According to Reuters, the bank projected in a research note that the average price of Brent crude will reach $86 per barrel in the third quarter and $80 in the last quarter, ending 2026 at $78.
JP Morgan stated that the withdrawal from commercial inventories in OECD countries was below expectations, while the weakness in demand exceeded estimates, leading to a decrease in the pressures pushing towards rising oil prices.
It mentioned that oil flows currently stand at about 8.6 million barrels per day, with an average from the beginning of June till now of 6.3 million barrels per day, which represents a notable increase compared to the levels in April and May.
The bank indicated that operators in the private sector have largely refused to draw from inventories, relying almost entirely on government release operations from strategic reserves to maintain refinery operations.
In its predictions for the second half of the year, the bank estimated a further decline in oil inventories in the organization's countries by approximately 50 million additional barrels between April and July.
It added that in light of the expected surplus in supply during the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first half of 2027, it is likely that a production cut will be needed early in 2027 after a period of maximum production capacity in late 2026.
