The Middle East is witnessing deep transformations that may redraw its political, economic, and security balances in the coming years. The potential pathways of understanding between international and regional powers, and the redistribution of centers of influence, suggest that the region is heading toward a different phase from the one that prevailed over the past decades.
In the midst of these transformations, Jordan finds itself at a critical moment where external challenges intersect with internal pressures in a way that is no longer manageable with traditional crisis management logic.
At the same time, the potential paths of understanding between the United States and Iran open the door to a gradual transition from a policy of open confrontation to a policy of managing influence and sharing interests, a shift that may force many small and medium-sized countries in the region to reconsider their roles, alliances, and strategic interests.
For Jordan, the challenge lies not only in adapting to these changes but also in maintaining its political position and enhancing its presence in a rapidly changing regional equation.
Alongside, the Hashemite custodianship of Christian and Islamic holy sites in Jerusalem emerges as one of the most sensitive files in Jordanian foreign policy. It represents not only a religious dimension but also one of the fundamental pillars of Jordan's role in the region.
Recently, tensions related to Israeli attempts to gradually change some realities in Jerusalem have escalated, posing a long-term challenge for Jordan to preserve the existing historical and legal status.
This issue is not just a fleeting political disagreement but concerns a file that affects one of the regional balance elements that have been fixed for many decades, and any change in these arrangements will impose new political and diplomatic burdens on Jordan, at a time when the region is undergoing rapid transformations.
But external challenges are not the only source of concern.
The domestic situation in Jordan is going through a delicate economic and social phase, no longer reflected solely by financial indicators but becoming part of the everyday life details for citizens.
The rising cost of living, persistent unemployment rates, and growing poverty have contributed to an increasing societal anxiety. Additionally, escalating discussions about corruption pose a direct challenge in building trust between the citizens and state institutions.
Whether these feelings of anxiety are based on proven facts or long accumulations of disappointments, the result is the same: the gap between the community and state institutions is widening.
This gap could become the most sensitive challenge if it is not addressed in a serious institutional manner, based on transparency, efficiency, and fairness in the distribution of opportunities and resources.
Despite all this, Jordan still possesses important strengths reflected in the stability of its institutions, its long experience in crisis management, its geopolitical position, and its international relations network.
However, these assets are no longer sufficient on their own.
The next phase will test the state's ability to renew its internal contract and build new trust with society, parallel to maintaining its external balances.
Jordan is not currently on the brink of collapse as some portray, nor is it in a state of complete reassurance as others believe.
It stands at a pivotal moment that will define its presence in a newly forming Middle East.
The most important question remains not what will happen to Jordan, but how Jordan will choose to position itself within this new landscape.
The Middle East is indeed changing, and the question is no longer whether the transformations will reach Jordan, but how Jordan will prepare to deal with them before new equations are imposed that it may not participate in crafting.
