Khaberni - Just days before the start of the 2026 World Cup in the United States, Mexico, and Canada, the sports statistics website "Opta" revealed its ranking of the strength of the tournament's groups, based on its own strength index that rates national teams on a scale of 100 points.
The upcoming edition of the World Cup will feature 48 teams divided into 12 groups, from which 32 teams will qualify for the knockout stages, while 16 teams will exit the competition from the first round.
Although the assessment of the strength of groups remains a relative matter subject to different viewpoints, the "Opta" ranking provides a numerical indicator based on the levels and recent results of the participating teams, allowing for a more accurate comparison between the tournament's groups.
World Cup group ranking from strongest to weakest
According to "Opta," Group Nine (I) is the strongest in the 2026 World Cup, featuring France, Senegal, Norway, and Iraq, with an average strength of 81.8 points, the highest among all groups.
France enters the tournament as the second strongest team in the world according to "Opta," behind Spain, the leader. The group also includes two teams ranked among the top 25 in the world, with Senegal at 21st and Norway at 25th.
Iraq, ranked 62nd, remains capable of surprising, especially after its 1-1 draw with Spain in a friendly match held just days before the tournament.
Group Eleven (K) comes second in terms of strength, including Colombia and Portugal, the only two teams in the tournament that are grouped together and ranked among the top ten teams in the "Opta" ranking.
Although the average strength of this group is 81 points, slightly less than Group Nine, the global ranks of its teams make it among the most competitive groups in the tournament.
The most balanced group
Despite being ranked lower in terms of overall strength, Group Four (D) emerges as the most balanced among all the World Cup groups.
The group includes the United States, one of the host countries, alongside Turkey, Australia, and Paraguay, all of which are within the top 36 teams in the "Opta" ranking.
The difference between the highest and lowest ranked teams in the group is only 6.5 points in the strength index, the smallest gap among all the tournament groups, making the chances of the four teams fairly equal.
An "Opta" simulation based on 25,000 different models also shows the expected differences in points between the teams in the group are very limited, although the United States is favored to finish the first round in the lead.
What are the weakest groups in the tournament?
On the other hand, "Opta" classified Group Two (B) as the weakest in the 2026 World Cup, both in terms of average strength and average global ranking of the participating teams.
The group includes Canada, one of the host countries, alongside Switzerland, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Qatar.
Its lower ranking is partly due to Canada being in the top tier as a host country, despite it being ranked 37th in "Opta's" strength ranking, making it the least ranked among all group heads.
The group also lacks any team ranked among the top 16 teams in the world, with Switzerland being the highest ranked at the 17th position.
Mexico among the weakest groups
The study also indicates that Group One (A) is among the weakest in the tournament, being the only group that does not include any teams ranked among the top 20 teams globally according to "Opta."
The group includes host Mexico, alongside South Korea, the Czech Republic, and South Africa.
Mexico leads the group's teams in global ranking, occupying the 24th spot, followed by South Korea at 32nd, then the Czech Republic at 40th, with South Africa at 64th.
Significant differences in some groups
"Opta" also notes wide discrepancies in the level of some groups, particularly Group Three that includes Brazil and Haiti, and Group Five featuring Germany and Curaçao.
In Group Three, the difference between Brazil, the highest-ranked team, and Haiti, the lowest-ranked team, exceeds 35 points in the strength index.
Meanwhile, Group Five records the largest disparity between two teams in the same group, as the German team surpasses Curaçao by more than 40 points in the strength ranking.
However, "Opta" confirms that these theoretical differences guarantee nothing on the field, as the World Cup has often witnessed surprises that have overturned all expectations, making the final judgment on the strength of the groups dependent on the outcomes of the matches on the pitch.
Opta's ranking of World Cup groups from strongest to weakest
Group 9 with 81.8%.
Group 11 with 81.0%.
Group 10 with 80.5%.
Group 6 with 79.0%.
Group 4 with 78.2%.
Group 8 with 78.2%.
Group 12 with 78.1%.
Group 3 with 76.9%.
Group 7 with 75.3%.
Group 5 with 74.2%.
Group 1 with 74.1%.
Group 2 with 70.9%.
