Khaberni - South China Morning Post reports that China's population is expected to decrease by 60 million people over the next ten years, roughly equivalent to the population of France.
The newspaper notes that according to a study conducted by Rhodium Group, this demographic decline threatens the country's economy.
China currently has a population of 1.41 billion, making it the second largest country in the world in terms of population after India (1.47 billion).
Analysts indicate that this population decline will primarily affect the coastal provinces that have contributed significantly to China's economic growth over the past forty years. The population decrease in these areas will directly impact consumption and productivity.
The main reason for this decline is the sharp decrease in birth rates, with 7.92 million children born in 2025, the lowest level ever recorded. Compared to 2024, the number of births decreased by 17 percent. Additionally, the country's population is decreasing for the fourth consecutive year. This trend is due to rising living costs and changing social attitudes among young people.
Globally, a similar trend is observed. A comprehensive United Nations study found that millions of people worldwide are unable to have children due to economic and social issues. Among the most significant barriers to childbirth, 39 percent of participants cited financial difficulties.
Other reasons include - job instability or lack of confidence in the future (21 percent) and 19 percent unable to afford decent housing. Fourteen percent lack a suitable partner, and 12 percent due to health issues, and 11 percent due to lack of partner involvement in child care.
Pessimism about the future also hinders childbirth. For example, 14 percent of participants fear political instability, wars, or pandemics. Also, 9 percent expressed concerns about the climate and environment.
It is noted that China faced a severe demographic crisis in 2024, where its population decreased by 1.39 million people.
According to experts, this demographic decline is due to the legacy of the one-child policy, which was in effect from 1979 to 2015, as well as rapid urban expansion. The situation is exacerbated by economic factors, including rising child-rearing and education costs and economic instability. There is an increasing tendency among young couples to delay starting a family, fearing the impact of having a child on their financial status and career paths.
Other factors affecting the demographic situation in the country include an aging population. For example, by 2024, the number of people over the age of 60 was about 22 percent, about 310 million people. This number is expected to rise to 400 million by 2035. Meanwhile, the Chinese Academy of Sciences warns of the potential depletion of the pension system in the coming decades. Experts also note that the number of women of childbearing age (15-49 years) will decrease in the long term by more than two-thirds.
Experts indicate that to overcome this problem, authorities are taking measures to stimulate birth rates. In December 2024, universities were recommended to include topics on marriage and family in their curricula. However, according to them, without broad social policy reforms, these efforts will not yield tangible results.
