Khaberni - Oil markets witnessed huge financial bets before the surprising American announcements about Iran, raising questions about suspicious trading benefiting from real-time information and moving ahead of influential political decisions.
According to Reuters, energy market participants bet approximately $430 million on contracts anticipating a decline in crude oil prices, just 15 minutes before President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday the extension of the ceasefire with Iran.
This marks the third time in the current month, and the fourth overall, that huge financial bets were recorded at precise times preceding important announcements related to the war with Iran. The value of one bet in March was about $500 million, while the total value of bets during April amounted to approximately $2.1 billion.
Data from the London Stock Exchange Group showed that the oil market experienced, between 19:54 and 19:56 GMT on Tuesday, sales transactions involving 4260 contracts valued at approximately $430 million, based on the futures price of Brent crude at that time. Trump’s announcement to extend the ceasefire indefinitely came at 20:10 GMT.
The settlement of the Brent crude market closes at 18:30 GMT, which means that these transactions were executed during what is known as the post-settlement hours, a period that usually sees a significant decrease in trading volumes and liquidity.
These transactions had little impact on prices at the time, as Brent crude slightly decreased to $100.66 per barrel, compared to $100.91 before execution. However, following Trump's announcement, Brent crude futures dropped to $96.83 immediately in the next minute, before later stabilizing at $99.2 per barrel at 12:00 noon GMT on Wednesday.
On March 23, just 15 minutes before Trump announced the postponement of attacks that were threatened against Iranian energy infrastructure, traders placed bets valued at about $500 million on declining oil prices. Similarly, on April 7, bets worth $950 million were executed a few hours before Trump announced a temporary ceasefire for two weeks.
On April 17, about 20 minutes before the Iranian Foreign Minister posted a statement on social media confirming that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open for commercial navigation, bets worth $760 million were placed on declining oil prices.
In related news, a knowledgeable source on April 15 mentioned that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission had begun an investigation into a series of futures oil trading deals, including operations conducted on March 23 and April 7, which preceded major political changes announced by Trump regarding the war with Iran.
