Khaberni - The Israeli treasury recorded exceptional financial flows during the first quarter of this year, yet an in-depth examination conducted by the Israeli economic newspaper Calcalist of tax data reveals concerning trends indicating deep-seated weaknesses in the economy under the burden of war, warning against being deceived by "one-time exit deals".
Misleading Figures and Political Pressure
The chief economist at the Israeli Ministry of Finance, Shmuel Abramzon, posted exceptional forecasts reducing the expected growth rate for 2026 by about 0.5%, but conversely raised revenue expectations by 11 billion shekels (about 3.7 billion US dollars) to reach 586 billion shekels (about 196.6 billion US dollars).
Despite revising growth forecasts downwards after a week - states the newspaper - Abramzon kept revenue expectations unchanged, amid hints of political pressures to raise it, which he denied, attributing the success to the high-tech sector.
Data from the Ministry of Finance, as provided by "Calcalist", show that the state collected revenues of 162 billion shekels (about 54.34 billion US dollars) in the first quarter, representing 27.6% of "Abramzon's" annual predictions.
The "Wiz" Deal and One-Time Flows
The newspaper confirms that the password is "so far", as there is no guarantee that this momentum will continue.
The rebound in March revenues, which recorded 55 billion shekels (about 18.45 billion US dollars) with an increase of 24% from the previous month, is attributed to major one-time deals.
"Calcalist" in its analysis states: "When we lift the hood on tax revenues, we find that the growth is not sustainable".
Of this increase, 8.7 billion shekels (about 2.92 billion US dollars) is attributable to the sale of two companies, one of which is "Wiz", acquired by "Google" for billions of dollars.
The newspaper clarifies that "this income is expected as a one-time", and it is difficult to rely on it to ensure the continuity of tax revenue momentum for the rest of the year.
Indicators of Weakness Under the Weight of War
Despite the apparently high numbers, "Calcalist" points to technical and objective factors that beautify the reality:
- Change in allowance percentages: In 2025, all sales tax money transferred to the Property Tax Fund, while only 25% was transferred this year; without this change, the revenue would have been approximately 900 million shekels (about 301.89 million US dollars) less.
- The inflation: Inflation was at 2%, which means that every 102 shekels today are actually worth 100 shekels from last year.
- Decrease in indirect taxes: Recorded a decrease of 1.9%, attributed by experts to a downturn in imports and a decrease in fuel consumption due to war conditions.
The newspaper cites tax authority experts: "Greater damage to revenues is expected in April and May, as these payments will reflect the economic slowdown of March."
And still, the echoes of the war continue to cast a shadow on the economy, with the continued mobilization of tens of thousands of reserve soldiers on the Lebanese front.
Calcalist emphasizes that these revenues, even if achieved, leave the state facing a high deficit of 4.9% according to estimates by the Ministry of Finance, and potentially higher according to estimates from the Bank of Israel.
