Arsenal experienced a "catastrophic" weekend by all measures; after a surprising fall at their home against Bournemouth last Saturday with a lackluster and disjointed performance, the pain intensified with Manchester City's convincing victory over Chelsea at "Stamford Bridge". This stumble reduced the gap at the top from 9 points to just 6, with City having a postponed match, igniting the fuse of speculations about the possibility of repeating previous collapse scenarios.
While the world anticipates a clash at the "Etihad" tomorrow Sunday, which many see as a historical juncture for the season, statistical and realistic data indicate that "the Gunners" still hold the upper hand.
Here are 5 reasons that make Arsenal closer to lifting the English League title:
1. The Illusion of Manchester City's Perfect Streak
The saying "If City wins all its matches, it will win the title" is treated as a certainty, but the reality indicates that winning 7 consecutive victories is not an easy task even for Pep Guardiola's team.
City's history in the last two seasons reveals that their longest winning streak reached only 6 matches (November/December last year), suggesting that the current version of City is not "the invincible machine" as before, but is prone to stumbles.
2. Arsenal's Golden Record in Major Matches
Under Mikel Arteta's leadership, Arsenal has become a "boogeyman" for the big teams. The team hasn't been defeated in their last 5 league encounters against City (two wins and three draws). Considering the clashes of the big six in the last three seasons, Arsenal is the team with the fewest losses (8 losses from 39 matches) and the most points collected. The problem lies in matches against smaller teams, but in "title-deciding summits," Arsenal knows how to seize the moment.
3. The Calendar of Matches Favors London
Opta's ratings for the strength of opponents indicate that Arsenal's remaining matches are relatively easier (average strength of opponents 90.4) compared to (92.0) for Manchester City.
Arsenal has the fourth easiest schedule in the league for the remainder of the season, and securing a positive result from the Etihad Stadium will allow them to fully control their destiny, especially with playing 3 matches at their home ground.
4. Defensive Solidity and Strength of Set Pieces
Despite a recent decline in creativity from open play, Arsenal possesses a lethal weapon with their set pieces, having scored from them (2.13) out of the total expected goals (xG) against Bournemouth.
Defensively, Arsenal remains the best in England; since the beginning of 2026, they are the only team that concedes less than one expected goal per match (0.76). The numbers confirm that opponents do not reach Arsenal's goal easily, and the team "wins" the statistics battle in most of their matches.
5. "The Supercomputer" Still Trusts Arteta
Aside from public emotions and fears, Opta's "Supercomputer" has placed Arsenal as a favorite to win the title with a probability of up to 87% after conducting 10,000 season simulations. The team is still favored by global betting offices.
Despite the current momentum favoring Manchester City and increasing talks of an imminent Arsenal collapse, the foundations built for this season's challenge remain solid. The task now lies with Arteta and his players to respond quickly on the field and prove that last Saturday's stumble was just a hiccup on the road to glory.
