Khaberni - Experts and analysts concluded that the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is unable to achieve political gains, following 6 weeks of war which he initiated alongside the United States against Iran, predicting that his dilemma will worsen amidst ongoing failure and the continuous security issues facing Israel in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon.
In an analysis by Reuters, researchers said that Netanyahu's objective for the war was to achieve a decisive victory over Tehran to secure his place in history, but after a month and a half of war, Iran appears unbreakable and capable of challenge.
While Tehran's nuclear stockpiles remain intact, its missile capabilities have proven stable so far and it holds influence over the Strait of Hormuz, the passage through which a fifth of the world's oil flows.
According to the head of Iranian studies at the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies, Danny Setrinovich, Netanyahu "did not achieve a victory, this war failed strategically and there is a gap between what he promised at the beginning of the campaign and where we have ended up."
Political Cost
Analysts believe that the Israeli Prime Minister is paying a political price for the recent war, as support for Netanyahu has fallen, while the political risks he faces are increasing with the forthcoming legislative elections in late October.
Netanyahu criticized those who he said underestimate Israel's achievements in the war against Iran, asserting that Israel emerged stronger while Iran weakened.
He stated in a statement last Saturday, "We achieved tremendous accomplishments... We made a historic change. We crushed the nuclear program, the missiles, and the regime."
Israeli officials told Reuters that initial expectations were for a quick operation that “gets the job done” within 3 weeks, but instead, the war expanded into a broader confrontation with implications for the Middle East and the world.
Image of Victory
According to Aviv Bushinsky, a former advisor to the Israeli Prime Minister, the war against Iran initially restored Netanyahu's status, which had been damaged by events of October 7th, 2023, which ignited the war on Gaza. However, polls show that his approval ratings have dropped after the initial weeks of the war.
A poll conducted by Agam Labs affiliated with the Hebrew University on April 11th found that only 10% of Israelis consider the war successful while Netanyahu’s support stands at 34%, compared to 40% at the start of the war. More than half of the respondents described Netanyahu’s leadership as bad or very bad.
Analysts say that despite the military campaign relying almost entirely on aerial superiority and achieving operational gains, it has not transitioned into a coherent and lasting strategic end.
On this point, Setrinovich adds, "There's a notion that 'F-15' and 'F-35' jets can shape or reshape the Middle East, and that if you kill enough Iranian leaders, the regime will fall. This is a false assumption, and the cost is increasing each time."
Netanyahu’s former advisor also questioned the viability of Israel’s reliance on the targeted killing policy of specific individuals, despite the killing of the former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in one of the raids, adding, "There is always someone to replace them, this targeted killing awakens the bear rather than kills it."
Israeli officials and a Western source stated that Netanyahu was not informed of the ceasefire plan agreed upon last week until it was in its final stages, while the Western source added that Netanyahu was outraged at being excluded from this process.
Since then, the Prime Minister has sought to dispel any impression that he had been marginalized in the talks which were mediated by Pakistan, releasing a statement yesterday that Vice President J.D. Vance called him from his plane to update him on the negotiations.
Netanyahu has also launched a campaign to convince voters that the war is worth the cost.
The Israeli Finance Ministry stated last Sunday that the cost of the war amounted to about 11.5 billion dollars from the budget, with a large portion spent on defense.
Exacerbating Dilemma
Diplomats in the region say it is likely that Netanyahu’s dilemma will worsen, amid the absence of military victories and the continuing security issues faced by Israel on various fronts, which may lead him to obstruct any rapid diplomatic progress in the war with Iran, considering that reaching an agreement between Washington and Tehran would exacerbate his political troubles.
Iranian affairs experts say the war has passed a critical threshold for Washington after Iran realized it can withstand a conflict with the United States and threaten its enemy.
Setrinovich said regarding Iran's control of the strait, "You can’t put the genie back in the bottle," adding, "The Iranians now feel stronger, emboldened, and want much more than was offered to them in previous talks."
