The American-Israeli war on Iran no longer affects only oil prices, but has changed even the way prices themselves are formed. The market, which used to be managed by benchmark indicators such as Brent, now operates through a more complex equation that takes into account where accessible oil is, how long it takes to deliver, and what the cost of transportation and security is.
This change means that the oil price no longer depends only on numbers present in markets or contracts, but more so on oil that can actually be delivered quickly. The problem is no longer the amount of oil available, but the ability to transport it and get it to the buyers on time.
Decline of Gulf Oil
The war has fundamentally changed the position of the Gulf in the global market, not just in terms of its production size. According to International Energy Agency estimates in their March 2026 report, actual Gulf-linked supplies fell by around 8 million to 10 million barrels per day due to exporting disruptions more than production halts.
But the deeper impact appeared in the "weight" of these barrels within pricing, as Gulf crude no longer represents the most reliable source for global balance, even though they are theoretically available. In this context, Fatih Birol, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, in an interview with Reuters, mentioned that the loss of global supplies exceeded 12 million barrels a day, warning that recovery "will not be quick", as restarting flows depends as much on shipping and insurance as it does on production.
Thus, the market no longer sees Gulf oil as a stable benchmark, but sees it as a high-risk supply, which has reshuffled the "center of gravity" away from it.
Revival of American Oil
In contrast, the war has redefined the position of American oil within the market, as per Kepler data, shipments to Europe and Asia sharply increased, with exports to Europe rising by about 25% to 30% and flows to Asia more than doubling.
This shift directly reflected in prices, as in the early April trading sessions, West Texas oil outperformed Brent, a historically rare occurrence, closing at about $111 compared to Brent's $109.
But more importantly, what happened in the real market, where American oil shipments (West Texas) were sold at prices higher than Brent by about $15 in Europe, and even higher in Asia. This means that buyers were willing to pay an additional amount to secure this oil.
And according to Paula Rodriguez-Masiu from Rystad Energy, this demand "does not reflect profitability, but a priority of access," referring to buyers paying a premium for logistical security, not just for the quality of the crude. In other words, American oil prices rose not because it was the cheapest, but because it was the most accessible.
Gulf Crudes Rise
In a striking irony, the prices of Gulf crudes themselves rose to record levels, despite becoming more difficult to transport. According to Reuters data, Dubai crude jumped to about $157 per barrel, and Oman crude to more than $152, with some estimates reaching nearly $170.
Saudi Aramco also raised the official selling price of Arab Light crude to Asia by a record premium of $19.5 per barrel above regional indices, according to Bloomberg.
This rise does not reflect traditional demand strength, but a "risk premium," meaning the price now includes the cost of uncertainty associated with transport and insurance. Here, the shift is evident, as oil is no longer priced only according to supply and demand, but according to the likelihood of delivery.
Africa and the Atlantic.. An Alternative Geography for Energy
With the declining reliability of the Gulf, the market has revitalized alternative sources. Reports from Reuters indicate that Asian and European refineries quickly shifted to West African and Atlantic crudes, leading to a noticeable increase in their premiums.
Some African crudes, like Angolan crude, recorded premiums close to $10 above the spot Brent, while Latin American crudes rose to between $12 and $15 above standard indices.
These figures reflect that the market was not looking for the cheapest oil, but for the "available" oil, and here countries like Algeria and Nigeria came back into focus, not because of increased production, but because their geographical location itself became a pricing advantage.
Floating Oil.. Supply That Is Not Usable
One of the most expressive features of the crisis was the accumulation of oil at sea, as per Kepler data, with the volume of oil stuck in the Gulf ranging between 136 and 172 million barrels, distributed across hundreds of tankers that were unable to unload or depart.
Vikas Dwivedi from Macquarie says these quantities "are not part of the actual supply," as they are not accessible in a timely manner, indicating that unloading them could take weeks due to insurance restrictions and sanctions.
This development reveals a fundamental paradox that the market might suffer from a supply shortage, despite oil being physically present because it is simply in the wrong place or at the wrong time.
The Spot Barrel.. The Most Valuable Commodity
The clearest shift appeared in the spot market, as per Bloomberg, futures prices no longer reflect the real cost of oil, with a widening gap between them and actual prices.
Reuters data indicates that spot commodities like Forties and spot Brent reached between $144 and $146, with deals surpassing $150, while futures remained much lower. The difference between the spot price and future contracts remained at about $25 to $30, a level that reflects a "now delivery" premium.
"Energy Aspects" clarifies that this gap reflects an actual shortage of deliverable barrels, not merely speculation in the market. Thus, the oil that can be delivered today is worth much more than oil that could be delivered in a month, according to Al Jazeera.
