The nation's speech that made the world and the American interior brace for new words from Trump did not surprise us; his speech was not just a compilation of fragmented previous statements to the extent that it outlined an emergency strategy to exit the war with Iran; it perhaps could assist in controlling the American economy, especially oil prices; which saw a rise immediately upon hearing the phrases about the war’s extension for two or three weeks, Trump certainly knows the impact of this but tried to mitigate saying that these hikes would be temporary.
Regarding the timing of this recklessly carried deterioration, we wonder: Will it really be temporary?
In a few lines, we can not answer this, but we mention some of what crosses our minds as we look behind the events; with the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed, the European role being merely observant—despite fruitless attempts to act—we can say: looking from the oil angle alone; the practical result of this scene is maintaining high levels if not pushing them higher, which will definitely result in the accumulation of more money in huge amounts for oil providers; in a way that tempts Trump "the merchant" to take a significant part of it.
This appetite of Trump: was born out of Europe's desire to seize opportunities and ride on the back of "the tampering", leaving the leadership to Trump; who then bears the hassle of this responsibility, Trump realized late this fact which led him to leave the fate of the strait to Europe considering he had no need for it, in a move he wanted to thrust Europe into the heart of the exhaustion storm which was celebrated by Europe before Russia and China; although, Trump was not serious about leaving the Strait of Hormuz; he eyes the possibility of a shift in balances with a European-Iranian agreement regarding the strait, even if just to spite the United States, then Europe will have no better option, and Trump will find no stronger slap than that.
Trump bolstered his reserve for this scenario by extending the duration of the war for more days; to prove his seriousness about abandoning Europe, especially after his talk about withdrawing from NATO which reached an advanced stage; in a move he intended to reaffirm the capability of the United States to independently lead a war "destined for victory" which he indicated by overthrowing the Iranian regime though this was not among his war goals, meaning achieving more than he wanted with less expended, which is not true.
The slap of Macron, who refused to provide assistance that Trump requested in his war and proclaimed that assistance could be provided after the war, perhaps Macron's slap was more of a response to Trump mocking punches from his wife than it was revenge for thwarting Trump's efforts to stop the war in Lebanon and Israel's refusal to receive his close defense minister due to France preventing American planes loaded with weapons to Israel from flying, in addition to Starmer's statements that the war is not his country’s; these setbacks pushed Trump to shift from the platform of militarization to the entrapment platform, and to think again economically; making the U.S. weapon a source of new income; instead of the loss in market disruptions and rising energy and oil prices, this plan requires paving the way for local conflict that pushes the accumulated money due to the rise in oil instead of U.S. weapons, and compels Europe at the same time not to stand by idly watching.
These calculations of Trump completely turned its back on Israel's and Netanyahu’s calculations, completely exiting his arsenal arrangement, the matter went beyond ignoring the Lebanese file to adding the Iranian one to it, and ignoring the effects of Israeli strikes on Iran, furthermore this repercussion on Israel; presents a picture where the strength of Iran is intensified more than before, with this picture, oil prices will not stabilize in the near future, and even if the war stopped after days or even suddenly and prices dropped for several days or weeks, does Trump know this and lies or does he not know what will happen? Or shall we rephrase the words to say: Will this happen accidentally or by manipulation?
