Khaberni - The accelerating geopolitical developments place the world in front of one of the worst possible scenarios for energy markets, with escalating risks associated with disruptions in oil supplies, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, through which massive amounts of crude oil and refined products pass daily.
Prices have already started to react to these tensions, with West Texas crude rising about 30% compared to levels before the outbreak of the war, while Brent crude has climbed about 40%, both stabilizing near the levels of $100 to $110 per barrel, after prices touched peaks at about $119.5 during March.
Despite these jumps, analysts at Macquarie Group believe that what is happening may just be the beginning, as a recent report indicates that continued conflict and keeping the strait closed until the end of the second quarter could push prices to record levels reaching $200 per barrel, with a probability estimated at about 40%.
The Macquarie report also warns that this scenario would affect global energy demand, due to the rise in costs to unprecedented levels, which could negatively reflect on global economic growth.
This price level represents a dangerous turning point, as oil prices have not approached these levels since before the 2008 global financial crisis, when prices reached their historic peak before collapsing as the global economy entered a severe recession.
Estimates suggest that reaching a price level of $170 per barrel could be enough to push the global economy into a "stagflationary recession," combining rising prices and slowing growth.
In the United States, the effects of these pressures are beginning to show, with gasoline prices rising by about 30%, threatening to undermine previous efforts to control inflation and increasing the burdens on consumers.
In this context, Washington remains cautious in its assessment, describing the $200 scenario as an existing possibility and not a confirmed reality, although the markets are increasingly treating it with seriousness in the face of accelerating events.
On the other hand, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted daily flows estimated at about 15 million barrels of crude oil and 5 million barrels of refined products, increasing the tension in the global energy markets.
In a significant development, President Donald Trump has decided to postpone the deadline for striking Iranian energy sites until April 6, in a move aimed at allowing limited passage for oil tankers, though the timing of fully reopening the strait remains the crucial factor in determining the course of prices.
Despite the escalation scenario, the report suggests a 60% probability that the war will end by the end of March, which could alleviate inflationary pressures, but uncertainty remains the most prominent factor guiding investor decisions at this stage.
In light of these data, the global markets face a real test, where the question is no longer whether oil prices can rise, but to what level they can reach, and whether the global economy is capable of handling a new shock that could reshape the contours of growth and inflation in the coming years.
