Khaberni - Barclays said today, Thursday, that the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz is likely to lead to a supply loss ranging from 13 to 14 million barrels per day, indicating that the extent of the disruption and uncertainty about its duration complicate the scene.
Estimates from the International Energy Agency indicate that global oil demand this year will range between 104 and 105 million barrels per day. Barclays mentioned that the Iran war has caused the largest geopolitical shock to energy markets since the Gulf War in 1990.
The bank noted in a memo, "Despite the uncertainty regarding ceasefire negotiations, we expect in our base assumption a return to normal transit through the Strait at the beginning of next month... reaching an average Brent price of $85 per barrel during the current year."
However, the bank added that if supply disruptions from Hormuz continue until the end of April 2026, Brent futures contracts may be repriced to $100 per barrel, and if disruptions continue until the end of May, prices could rise to $110.
The bank pointed out that supply flexibility is structurally weaker than during previous shocks, as the extra production capacity of the OPEC+ alliance is lower and growth in non-OPEC+ countries, led by the United States, is steadily slowing due to declining investments over the years.
