Khaberni - The Middle East no longer lives within a clear international system as was believed after the end of the Cold War. Instead, it has become part of a world heading towards a turbulent multipolarity, where major powers compete economically, technologically, and militarily, using trade, energy, finance, and supply chains as tools of influence no less significant than armies. In such a world, geography becomes not just fate, but also a permanent risk, especially for a region that lies at the heart of trade routes, energy paths, maritime passages, and conflicts simultaneously.
What we witness today is not merely a shift in power balances, but a gradual decline in the rules of the existing international order, and perhaps the beginning of the end of this system as the world has known it since the end of the Cold War. The rules are no longer equally applied, even in media terms, and international institutions are no longer always able to enforce them. The balance of economic, technological, and military power now plays a greater role than the written rules themselves.
In this world, major powers can withstand shocks, exert pressure, and reshape the system to serve their interests, because they possess enormous markets, military capabilities, technology, influential currencies, and alliance networks. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern countries, especially medium and small ones, do not have the luxury of confrontation or isolation at the same time, and thus find themselves forced to manage balances very precisely, not only within the region but also between competing global powers.
Over the past decades, most Middle Eastern countries have relied on an unwritten equation of security in exchange for political stability, oil or geographical location in exchange for protection or international support, and economic openness in exchange for integration into the global system. This equation provided a degree of stability, but it was based on the assumption that the international system is stable and its rules relatively fixed. This assumption is no longer valid today.
The world is now moving towards what can be called a risk mitigation world, not a complete globalization world. Major powers are no longer looking only for economic efficiency, but for strategic security. They no longer seek the cheapest supplier, but a supplier that cannot become a tool of pressure. They no longer search for the fastest supply chain, but a supply chain that can be controlled during crises. This shift will directly impact the Middle East in the coming decades.
For the Gulf states, the biggest challenge will not only be oil prices, but also the very position of oil in the global economy. The world will attempt to diversify energy sources and reduce dependence on a single region, which means that the Gulf states are moving in the right direction when they invest in industry, tourism, logistic services, technology, and renewable energy, since power in the coming world will not be measured only by what lies beneath the ground, but by what is produced above it in terms of knowledge, industry, technology, and services.
Countries like Jordan hold a different kind of importance. They are neither oil-rich nor major military powers, but they are located in extremely strategic geographical locations between the Gulf, Iraq, Syria, Palestine, and Egypt, at the heart of both a network of crises and trade routes. In the new world, countries that lie on trade and energy routes and communication pathways can transform into logistic, financial, and technological transit states if they properly leverage their location, but this requires a productive economy, effective institutions, quality education, and a stable investment environment.
The basic problem in many Middle Eastern countries is not just a shortage of resources, but a deficiency in economic productivity. Nations that do not produce technology, industry, or knowledge will always remain in a subordinate position in the global system regardless of their political alliances. In the modern world, political independence is not achieved by slogans alone, but by economics, production, technology, education, and the ability to self-finance.
There is also an important shift in the concept of sovereignty. In the past, sovereignty meant control over borders. Today, however, sovereignty means the capacity for economic resilience. A state that can be pressured by cutting off energy, financing, markets, or technology is not fully sovereign no matter how strong its political rhetoric. In the 21st century, sovereignty has become more linked to energy, food, technology, supply chains, and financing than to borders alone.
The Middle East today stands before a historic choice: either remain an arena for competition by major powers or transform into a region of interconnected economic, logistic, and industrial cooperation. International experiences suggest that regions that trade with each other, invest with each other, and connect their infrastructures with each other become less prone to wars and more capable of negotiating with major powers.
The future of the region will not belong only to those who possess oil or weapons but to those who possess a productive economy, quality education, stable institutions, balanced relationships, and the ability to adapt to a rapidly changing world. The new world does not ask if countries are big or small, but asks them one question only: can you rely on yourself when the rules change? Countries that can answer yes will remain stable and influential, while those that cannot will always be fearful of any change in the world.
