Khaberni - Three informed sources told Reuters that U.S. intelligence concluded that the Iranian leadership remains largely cohesive, and is not at risk of collapse anytime soon, following about two weeks since the beginning of the American-Israeli bombing.
One of the sources, all of whom requested anonymity to discuss the findings of U.S. intelligence, said that "a significant number" of intelligence reports provide "consistent analyses indicating that the regime is not at risk" of collapse, and that it "still holds control over Iranian public opinion".
The source added that the latest report was completed in the past few days.
With increasing political pressures due to the sharp rise in oil prices, U.S. President Donald Trump hinted that he would soon end the largest U.S. military operation since 2003. However, finding an acceptable exit from the war may be difficult if Iranian leaders remain in their positions.
Intelligence reports confirm the cohesion of the ruling establishment in Iran despite the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28, the first day of the U.S. and Israeli strikes.
A senior Israeli official told Reuters that Israeli officials have acknowledged in closed discussions that it is not certain that the war will lead to the collapse of the religious elite's rule.
The sources confirmed that the situation on the ground is changing, and that the internal conditions in Iran may change.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the CIA declined to comment, as did the White House in response to a request for comment.
Shifting targets
Since the outbreak of the war, the United States and Israel have launched strikes on a wide range of Iranian targets, including air defenses, nuclear sites, and members of the senior leadership.
The Trump administration has provided varying justifications for the war. When announcing the start of the American operation, Trump urged the Iranians to "take control of your government," but his senior aides later denied that the goal was to overthrow the Iranian leadership.
In addition to Khamenei, the strikes resulted in the deaths of dozens of senior officials and some senior leaders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
However, U.S. intelligence reports indicate that the Revolutionary Guard and the interim leaders who took power after Khamenei's death still control the country.
Earlier this week, the Assembly of Experts announced the selection of Mojtaba, Khamenei's son, as the new leader of the country.
A fourth source, informed about the matter, stated that Israel does not intend to allow any part of the former government to remain.
It is still unclear how the current U.S.-Israeli military campaign will lead to the overthrow of the government.
The source clarified that it would probably require a ground attack that allows Iranians to demonstrate in the streets safely. The Trump administration has not ruled out sending U.S. troops to Iran
Involving the Kurds
Last week, Reuters reported that Iranian Kurdish factions based in Iraq consulted with the United States on how to attack Iranian security forces in the west of the country, and whether it should be done at all.
Such an incursion would pressure Iranian security agencies there, enabling Iranians to act against the government, according to the estimates published by the agency.
Abdullah Mohtadi, leader of the "Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan," part of a coalition of six Iranian Kurdish parties, said in an interview yesterday, Wednesday, that these parties are highly organized within Iran, noting that "tens of thousands of young people are ready to take up arms" against the government if they receive American support.
Mohtadi added that he received reports from inside the Kurdish regions in Iran that units of the Revolutionary Guard and other security forces had evacuated bases and barracks for fear of the U.S.-Israeli strikes.
He said, "We see concrete indications of weakness in the Kurdish regions.".
However, recent U.S. intelligence reports questioned the ability of the Iranian Kurdish groups to continue fighting against the Iranian security agencies, according to two sources familiar with these assessments.
The sources indicated that the intelligence information indicates that these groups lack sufficient firepower and numbers.
Another person familiar with the matter said that the Iranian Kurdish groups had requested in recent days from senior U.S. officials and members of Congress to provide them with weapons and armored vehicles.
But Trump said on Saturday that he ruled out allowing Iranian Kurdish groups to enter Iran.
