Khaberni - Research and consultancy firm Wood Mackenzie said on Tuesday that the war in Iran is currently leading to a reduction in oil and oil product supplies from the Gulf by approximately 15 million barrels per day, which could raise crude oil prices to $150 per barrel.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has pledged to prevent any oil from leaving the Middle East until the American and Israeli attacks stop.
The company stated that the Gulf countries "produce a total of 20 million barrels per day of liquids, and the market has been deprived of 15 million barrels per day of exports."
It added that "achieving market balance requires a decrease in oil demand of 105 million barrels per day, and in our opinion, this will necessitate an increase in Brent price to at least $150 per barrel in the coming weeks."
It continued, "In our view, reaching a price of $200 per barrel is not out of the question in 2026."
Europe faces particularly sharp challenges, as Gulf refineries supply 60% of aviation fuel and 30% of diesel.
The company added "a lot will depend on the duration of the war, the duration of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and whether the American navy is able to ensure safe passage of ships by escorting them."
Even after the end of the conflict, the increase in supply will not be rapid.
