Khaberni - A UN report predicts Jordan will achieve an economic growth of 2.8% for this and next year, with inflation continuing at low levels in a regional environment marked by increasing geopolitical and trade uncertainties.
According to the report issued by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA), monitored by "Al Mamlaka", the uncertainty intensified with the outbreak of the war between Israel and Iran last year, severely affecting air transport and damaging Jordan’s tourism sector, in addition to the repercussions of the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip.
In contrast, a regime change in Syria has improved market sentiment in the region, and the UN report suggests that Jordan stands to benefit from this.
The report also expects inflation in Jordan to remain at low levels, with inflation forecasts registering 2.4% this year and 1.8% next year.
It is expected that the debt ratio will reach about 95.6% of the Gross Domestic Product, with debt levels remaining high in several middle-income countries, including Jordan, which limits financial flexibility and growth prospects.
Jordan is expected to benefit from the return of refugees to Syria, which will alleviate the burden of service provision on the government, according to the UN report titled "Macroeconomic Prospects in the Arab Region".
However, its trade relations with the United States mean it is affected by increased tariffs, with textiles, fertilizers, chemicals, aluminum, and electronics subject to high tariffs, while energy products are exempted. Jordan is expected to be most affected, as it directs about 25% of its total exports to the United States.
ESCWA estimates suggest that Jordanian exports will grow by 4.8% this year and 6.5% next year, compared to 3.8% last year, while imports are expected to grow by 2.8% this year and 3.5% next year, compared to 3% last year.
The report emphasizes that middle-income countries, including Jordan, face tighter financing conditions, necessitating intensified efforts to mobilize domestic revenues and enhance spending efficiency.
Regional growth and the global context
Arab economies are likely to gradually recover despite challenges, with the regional growth rate expected to rise from 2.9% in 2025 to 3.7% in 2026, according to the report, which monitors growth trends within a global context marked by geopolitical upheavals and escalating financial pressures, potentially hindering the achievement of sustainable and inclusive growth.
According to the report, inflation is expected to decrease from 8.2% in 2025 to 5.4% by 2027, driven by decreasing commodity prices and the normalization of supply chains. The overall exports of the region are also anticipated to grow, supported by an increase in non-oil exports.
Morad Wahba, the acting Executive Secretary of ESCWA, stated that the economic improvement is based on efforts to diversify economies, notably in high-income countries, implementing financial reforms, and boosting investment in non-hydrocarbon sectors.
He cautioned that the region "remains highly vulnerable to risks arising from external imbalances", especially with ongoing uncertainty regarding global customs tariffs and disruptions in regional trade movements.
The report forecasts that growth in high-income countries will increase from 3.3% in 2025 to 4.2% in 2026. Middle-income countries are expected to see their growth rate rise from 2.8% to 3.3% during the same period, with a subsequent gradual improvement despite challenges of debt and inflation.
In contrast, low-income countries are facing severe financial and humanitarian pressures, with limited recovery expected in 2026 and 2027 after a contraction of 0.9% in 2025.
The report calls on Arab countries to diversify their economies, reducing dependence on hydrocarbons, enhancing investment in human capital and technology, digital transformation, improving public financial management, boosting domestic revenues, aligning aid and investments with national priorities, enhancing labor market resilience, and creating sustainable employment opportunities.
The report also highlights the humanitarian challenges in Gaza, noting that the cost of reconstruction might reach around 70 billion dollars amid severe loss of life and destruction affecting approximately 78% of buildings.
