Khaberni - Babak Tavassoli, Senior Political and Credit Risk Analyst at Scor in a LinkedIn post, said that the U.S. carrying out an attack on Iran is now the most likely scenario following the recent steps taken by Washington to bolster its military presence in the region.
Tavassoli mentioned what he described as the largest mobilization since the invasion of Iraq in 2003, and said the scale of the deployment indicates more than just deterrence, writing, "You cannot mobilize such a force merely for a show."
He outlined three possible scenarios, each having very different impacts on insurance companies.
Strike Then Negotiate
The baseline scenario suggests that the U.S. would conduct targeted strikes on missile production facilities, nuclear assets, and the infrastructure of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
The aim here is to establish a clear dominance in case of escalation and to force Tehran to return to the negotiating table.
In this scenario, insurance would cover material damages in Israel, especially in major urban centers like Tel Aviv, Haifa, Ashdod, and Netanya.
Tavassoli stated that there would also be an increased exposure to damages involving ports and energy infrastructure.
Commercial credit losses would be limited, and a widespread deterioration in credit or political risks is not expected under this scenario.
Mobilization without Attack
In this scenario, Tavassoli said that the enhancement of U.S. military force alone is sufficient to pressure Tehran into negotiations.
Here, the threat of using force, rather than actual use, prevents a military confrontation.
As a result, the insurance industry would not suffer any material losses and the geopolitical tension would not have a tangible negative impact on financial or operational aspects.
Prolonged Campaign
Tavassoli mentioned that the least likely, yet most dangerous scenario, involves a prolonged U.S. military campaign lasting several weeks. Operations would include strikes on Iranian oil export facilities, and possibly targeting the regime's leadership, aiming to maximize leverage before any diplomatic agreement.
He added that the insurance impacts in this case would include wider-scale property damages in Israel and broader commercial credit risks.
The risks of maritime accidents would significantly increase, especially for non-Chinese ships that have no ties to China. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to oil prices rising to $150 per barrel, increasing credit pressures on oil-importing economies.
