The Social Security Institution is considered the last safeguard of the social contract in the state. It is not merely a sovereign fund for managing subscriptions, but rather embodies the concept of future reassurance for the individual towards the state and the society. However, the recent proposed amendments to the law raise fundamental questions that go beyond dry actuarial calculations, reaching the core of social protection philosophy and its alignment with the Jordanian demographic and economic reality.
The move to raise the retirement age to 65 presents us with a statistical and social paradox that is troubling. If the average lifespan of Jordanians is around 74 years, then narrowing the gap between retirement age and expected lifespan brings into question the "viability" of participating in social security for the workforce. From the perspective of pension systems, this pressure on the retirement ceiling leads to "rational disengagement"; where contributors will look for alternatives outside the official umbrella, which enhances the migration towards private insurance companies or individual investments. This shift not only weakens liquidity in the Social Security Fund but also will lead to an expansion of the phenomenon of insurance evasion, turning social security from an inclusive umbrella into a coercive system that individuals try to circumvent rather than seek shelter under.
The effectiveness of any insurance system is linked to the cumulative and stability of subscriptions. With a minimum limit set at 240 subscriptions (20 years) for retirement, in parallel with raising the age, we create a counter-incentive for the youth and age groups under thirty-five.
The new mathematical logic might push many to postpone voluntary subscriptions, or even stop current subscriptions, and return to the umbrella only when the required years of service overlap with the impending retirement age. This waiting behavior will drain the social security of its cash flows during the years of productive vitality and creates an imbalance in the solidarity balance on which social security is based, turning the relationship with the institution into a momentary utilitarian relationship rather than a long-term strategic partnership.
What is striking in the current proposals is the continued shadow area of military retirement, despite the interconnected insurance pathways in the state. If the general trend is moving towards requiring 360 subscriptions (30 years) as a minimum for financial balance, then the question imposes itself: will the military service be obliged to similar time durations to align with these standards?
Ignoring this aspect in the current presentation indicates a lack of a comprehensive vision in unifying the references, which may lead to distortions in distributive justice among the sectors and complicates the scene for the decision-maker in the future when trying to address the total actuarial deficit of the state.
Reforming social security systems cannot be properly aligned by relying only on actuarial tables without considering behavioral and social factors. The crisis is not in the length or shortness of the working years, but in the extent of the citizen's trust that this system can provide a dignified life in the autumn of their life without draining the spring of their subscriptions in equations that do not consider the lived reality.
