Khaberni - Decisive climate indicators have emerged that redraw the features of what remains of the rainy season, and place the kingdom before an early test of its ability to manage its limited resources amid higher than usual temperatures and below-average rainfall.
Quarterly updates issued by the Meteorological Department indicate a clear thermal anomaly during February, with a 100% probability, followed by an expected decline in the amounts of rainfall in most regions, according to outputs of the European climate models.
And reading these figures goes beyond the meteorological dimension to economic and strategic dimensions, primarily affecting water security, then agriculture and energy, in a climate context characterized by seasonal variability and changing rainfall patterns.
This reality imposes a different approach in planning and enhances the need for proactive solutions that increase the resilience of vital sectors against fluctuations that have become more severe and regular, according to environmental experts.
And the estimates for March, issued by the Meteorological Department, reinforce the same picture, with expected higher than average temperatures and slightly less than average rainfall, confirming that the general trend leans toward a season tending towards warmth and relative dryness, even with the possibility of intermittent rainy periods.
While experts emphasize that these climate predictions reflect a general trend and not daily events, their strategic implications impose a reevaluation of priorities in managing water, energy, and agriculture, according to tomorrow.
Rainfall Below Average
According to updates to the quarterly forecasts of temperatures and rainfall for February and March, published by the Meteorological Department four days ago, the results of the seasonal models indicate that the average temperature during February this year is expected to be higher than its general average by about 3.0 to 4.5 degrees Celsius in most regions of the kingdom, with a probability of prediction reaching 100%.
Relying on the simulation of available climate data at the meteorology department and outputs of the European ECMWF model "February 2026 release", the outputs indicate that the total rainfall for the current month is expected to be below its monthly general averages in most regions of the kingdom, with a prediction probability ranging between 60% to 70%.
While it is expected to be slightly less than its general averages in parts of northern and central Jordan, with a probability close to 40%.
These forecasts, in the opinion of the founder of the master's programs in Renewable Energy and Environment and Climate Changes at the University of Jordan, Professor Ahmad Slaymah, are "reliable and correct", as the percentage of rainfall will be lower than its annual averages in these months, at a time when temperatures will rise unprecedentedly.
He pointed out that February and March will witness lower than usual rainfall amounts compared to previous years, which will negatively affect the water sector primarily, given the shortage in the kingdom's water resources.
Despite the fact that the quantities of water that the kingdom's dams received during the rainy season were "good", the expected decrease in rainfall during the coming period will reflect on the replenishment of groundwater and lead to a decrease in the water reserves in the kingdom, according to him.
And it does not stop there, according to him, as the agricultural sector will also be affected by the decrease in rainfall and the rise in temperatures, especially in agricultural crops.
He expects that summer temperatures will also be higher than their annual averages, which will increase the rates of energy and electricity consumption.
He based his opinion on the fact that the rate of electricity consumption during the past summer reached record levels, unprecedented in Jordan.
And all these repeated waves of drought and decreased rainfall and rising temperatures, as Slaymah pointed out, will lead to an increase in desertification rates in the kingdom and the worsening deterioration of the land, which has been increasing over the past years, according to him.
There are many measures that can be taken to tackle such challenges in light of the increasing population as well, which he summed up as "accelerating the national carrier project and relying on renewable energy sources to meet the growing demand for electricity."
Among the measures are also a shift in the agricultural sector towards using water-saving technologies and relying on climate-smart agriculture, according to Slaymah.
March Predictions
In turn, the Meteorological Department expects the average temperature during March to be higher than its general average by about 1.0 to 2.0 degrees Celsius in most regions of the kingdom, with an expected prediction probability close to 60%.
Regarding rainfall, the same outputs indicate that the total rainfall for March is expected to be slightly less than its monthly general averages in most regions of the kingdom, with an expected prediction probability ranging between 50% to 60%.
The department mentioned in its bulletin that seasonal predictions are long-term climate forecasts that reflect the general trend compared to general climate averages and do not necessarily mean the absence of rainy periods, or that the kingdom will not be affected by active weather conditions during this period, and it is not linked to daily or medium-term weather forecasts issued by the administration regularly.
Difficulty in Prediction
In the opinion of the chairman of the board of directors of the Sustainable Association for Energy, Water, and Environment Dr. Dureid Mahasneh, the climate changes witnessed by Jordan make it difficult to predict the nature of the rainy season.
Mahasneh cited as an example that, Jordan, after experiencing repeated droughts over past years and a decrease in rainfall, it is possible, having had an early rainy season, that the rainfall amounts be heavy, and even last for several consecutive days.
The rainy season in recent years, according to him, was late, in February or possibly later, while the rains fell for a day or day and a half on some occasions, and then briefly interrupted.
And all these data, according to him, led to the evaporation of the water quantities that had fallen due to the high temperatures.
For these reasons, Mahasneh stressed the need to take measures capable of establishing more future projects to ensure that heavy rainfall expected to be experienced by Jordan in the coming years, such as water harvesting, desert ponds, water gatherings, and improving the absorption capacities of dams, is not lost.
He added that for climate changes, Jordan is not the main cause, but rather the surrounding, industrial, and major countries, and therefore it is necessary to maintain the momentum of the annual climate summits and interact with them to ensure positive results that benefit the kingdom.
He mentioned that regional cooperation in water harvesting is essential, especially with neighboring countries.
