Khaberni - Axios's reporters Barak Ravid and Mark Caputo say that President Donald Trump is practicing "gunboat diplomacy" - a policy of threat - with Iran, quoting a senior U.S. official saying that Trump "really does not want" to engage in war right now.
The reporters explain in their report that Trump, for the third time since his return to power, is trying to reach a nuclear deal with Iran, and noted that he has previously veered from a diplomatic to a war footing, while U.S. officials confirm that current efforts are serious.
They state that Trump enters the scheduled Friday talks with strong leverage, represented by a massive military buildup in the Gulf that poses a real military threat, and an Iranian regime that is weakened and more isolated due to massive protests. Conversely, U.S. officials doubt that Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is ready to accept Trump's tough conditions for any potential agreement.
Not a Cover for a Sudden Attack
The reporters say that U.S. officials are currently emphasizing that sending envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is not a cover for another sudden attack, although the United States has mobilized significant firepower in the region in anticipation of Trump making a military decision. They pointed out that Trump was about to launch strikes three weeks ago due to the killing of thousands of protesters, but he backed down as the protests were suppressed and lost momentum.
They mentioned that there were doubts behind the scenes within the West Wing of the White House about whether the American bombing would achieve a decisive political change, amid fears of widespread Iranian retaliation. Concurrently, Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt made intense diplomatic efforts to calm the situation, resulting in the agreement to hold the anticipated Friday meeting in Istanbul with the presence of Arab observers.
Israel Opposes Limited Strikes
The report states that the military plans being considered have become more ambitious as Washington bolsters its military pieces (including an aircraft carrier), and that Israel had opposed limited strikes previously contemplated by Trump, considering them "symbolic" and unworthy of risking retaliation.
A senior U.S. official confirmed, according to the report, that Trump "really does not wish" to engage in war currently, unlike his feeling in June when he perceived Iran's nuclear activities as an imminent threat, as his advisors believe that a military option now could undermine his regional and international agenda. From his side, Trump reiterates daily that he is sending "big ships" to the region but he is "open to dialogue."
Could Find Itself in a Bad Situation
The reporters also noted that Iran insists before Friday's negotiations that it will only discuss the nuclear issue and not touch on other topics like missiles, indicating a wide gap between the parties.
The report concluded that Trump is now taking the diplomatic route, but his patience may not last, as an official from the mediating countries warned: "If Iran does not come to the talks with tangible things, it could quickly find itself in a very bad situation."
