If we want to keep up with the future, we must know history to understand half of the truth, then return to the present to understand the other half if we can, and from there we start.
In the year 1990, we sat in a small room in our old house -of which only the location remains today- glued to the TV in a room barely large enough for those present, just like every Jordanian family, big and small, watching the eight o'clock news on Amman, to follow the news about the Gulf War.
As midnight neared, we finished taping all the house windows to prevent them from shattering in case of an emergency, just as we had finished sewing and preparing charcoal masks to provide some protection against chemical weapons, as we were warned.
The world was changing around us, a new international order was taking shape, while we, the general public in Jordan, the Middle East, and perhaps the world, few of us were able to connect the events and understand the proceedings.
In Europe, just months before that, the Berlin Wall had fallen, and with it, an entire Eastern Bloc collapsed.
An American political academic named Fukuyama launched a famous study back then saying: history has ended, as Western democratic liberalism triumphed, the conflicts between ideological models had ended, and the wars between the countries of the civilized world had ceased, and what would unite them now is the market alone, while the impoverished Third World would be filled with civil conflicts, guerrilla wars, mercenary armies, and failed states.
"Joseph Nye," another more famous American political academic, preached before that about a new global order, characterized by soft power alongside hard power.
All these ideas seemed to be materializing on the ground, as the unipolar system began to thrive, arms races declined, liberal democracies expanded in Eastern Europe and the liberated Soviet republics, the world started a new path to peace-making, economic globalization accelerated, and international institutions and multinational corporations flourished amid the communications revolution, while civil conflicts became a dominant feature in the Third World countries.
At the dawn of the new millennium, the world woke up to events that tampered with the new international order, as the September 11, 2001 attacks reinstated the role of hard power in the war on terrorism, and soon the world witnessed the first practical use of a drone in direct combat operations in Afghanistan, a new weapon that would change the face of warfare thereafter.
Later, Fukuyama recanted his ideas, and the world entered the global financial crisis in 2008, undermining confidence in the liberal economic model.
Subsequent decades confirmed that history is back with a more complex present, where military power intersects with economics, and politics with technology, and markets and supply chains become an integral part of the equations of influence and control.
In the Russian–Ukrainian war, this reality clearly emerged, as the battle was not only on the ground but also on supplies of energy and food.
In South Asia, the world held its breath to the drama of a conflict between nuclear powers in India and Pakistan.
And in East Asia, the tension around Taiwan affirmed that advanced technology, particularly semiconductors, is at the heart of international conflict, before the military power in Venezuela regained its ability to shock the memory of the Cold War.
The world has certainly changed... In the Middle East, violence peaked with the Gaza War, and international judicial and justice institutions lost the luster they had gained in previous decades, as smart wars reached the bounds of imagination with espionage technologies and access and assassination capabilities, and international trade and shipping routes, and oil and energy markets, were managed by the logic of "escalation management" that might burst at any moment, amid complex conflicts stretching from Gaza to Lebanon, from Iran to Yemen, in direct confrontations, proxy wars, pressures, intents, and plans that smolder like embers under the ashes.
In today's world, history ends again, in a new global order where the poles are multiplied, and arm races reach their peak, even in old Europe that had abandoned its armies in previous periods, and today returns to inaugurate the future with defense industries that exceed all budgets.
A complex reality, and a future we understand from the lessons of history, to venture into a new regional and international order, with wise politics, a cohesive society, and a strong army possessing the tools capable of warding off dangers and matching intelligence with intelligence, power with power, and threats with vigilance and shrewdness and good readiness.
This is the old-new secret about Jordan's ability to remain stable, and the ability to read history and prepare for a secure future for Jordanians -God willing- with a strong army, and a national societal fabric that rallies around wise Hashemite leadership, capable of dissecting lines and understanding truths and preserving the homeland.
This is how Jordan proceeded before, and so it will proceed confidently to keep up with the changes with the wisdom of its Hashemite leadership, and the strength of its Arab army and its ability to make change, in defense of security, prosperity, and the preservation of land and people.
As for us, we will remain glued to the screens searching for answers; will the world and the region witness more changes? And if that is the most likely to happen around us, how? and when? and who will write the history?
