Khaberni - In analyzing the effects of the low-pressure system that the kingdom saw yesterday, a fundamental question arises about whether its temporal precision and intense rainfall place it among unprecedented events, within the 'Al Murabba'aniyah' period, or whether it is an extension of a familiar weather pattern, albeit a more severe one.
The data indicates that the last low pressure system was not the strongest in terms of absolute force compared to previous systems, but what distinguished it was the timing and the high precision of the forecasts, in addition to the nature of the intense rainfall during short time periods.
Reaching 60% of the seasonal rainfall average relatively early in the season is a noticeable indicator, not just in terms of quantity, but also in terms of the regular temporal distribution, which has often been a challenge in previous winter 'Murabba'aniyahs'.
A qualitative shift in rainfall behavior
According to preliminary indicators and readings, the effects of the low pressure do not classify it as a completely unprecedented event in the 'Al Murabba'aniyah' record, according to the Ministry of Water and Irrigation, but they represent a qualitative shift in rainfall behavior in terms of intensity and temporal concentration, a shift hard to separate from the broader context of climate changes. This means it is not a complete break from the past but a clear signal that what was once considered anomalous is now becoming a recurring pattern, necessitating a new interpretation of upcoming rain seasons.
Traditionally, 'Al Murabba'aniyah' was known for its sharp fluctuations and consecutive depressions, but what the recent situation witnessed transcends the typical pattern, as heavy rainfall was concentrated in limited hours, accompanied by thunderstorms and hail showers, with risks of floods and floods over a wide geographical scope. This pattern cannot be entirely considered unprecedented in the 'Al Murabba'aniyah' record, but it reflects an escalation in the severity of phenomena rather than their duration, making their impact more dangerous despite their short duration.
As for the level of forecasting, high-precision weather models have shown an advanced ability to identify affected areas and the amounts of rainfall with remarkable accuracy, with broad agreement among various models. This development does not mean that the low pressure itself was exceptional, but rather that the mechanisms for monitoring and predicting it have become more advanced, allowing for early preparedness and warnings about its dangers, a relatively new element in dealing with 'Murabba'aniyah' depressions.
The link with climate changes remains strong in this context; the intensity of rainfall in short periods and the sharp increase in disparity between dry periods and heavy rainfall are characteristics associated with climate change in the Eastern Mediterranean region. These phenomena do not necessarily indicate an increase in total annual rainfall but point to a disruption in their natural pattern, raising the likelihood of floods and intensifying water and hydrological challenges.
Good rainfall with a positive impact
In this context, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Water Omar Salamah, in statements to "Al Ghad," confirmed that the current rainfall season bears positive indicators, noting that the rainfall recorded until the morning of yesterday reflects significant progress in the season, which is promising "and thank God, we have reached 60% of the rainfall until the morning of yesterday, indicating that the season is good."
Salamah added, that the last low-pressure system, despite not being the strongest compared to previous depressions, had good and impactful rainfall, expressing hope that it would positively reflect on the water situation. He explained that it "is not stronger than the previous depressions, but its rainfall was good, and we hope that it will have a positive effect."
He noted that the nature of some depressions that the kingdom has recently experienced, characterized by heavy rainfall over short periods, fall under the climate changes affecting the region. Adding that "what we have seen of heavy rainfall in short times, falls under climate changes and their impact on the region."
Regarding technical readiness, Salamah mentioned that specialized teams are continuously monitoring the situation to ensure the safety of water facilities and their efficient operation, as "water levels in storage and the safety of water facilities are monitored around the clock, and teams work in coordination with relevant authorities to ensure readiness and rapid response to any emergency."
Salamah also warned of the risks of floods forming in valleys and low-lying areas, urging citizens to adhere to safety guidelines issued by official bodies. He emphasized the "need to avoid streambeds and culverts, not to approach dams and earth pits, and to comply with the issued instructions to maintain public safety."
He also indicated that emergency rooms in the Ministry, Jordan Valley Authority, and water companies in the provinces are fully operational to handle reports and address any technical issues that may arise from the weather situation. He affirmed that "emergency rooms receive reports and address any technical issues," highlighting that "the current rains are an important tributary to water resources under climate conditions and challenges linked to water scarcity in Jordan."
He reiterated his assurance that weather conditions are continuously monitored, and procedures are updated accordingly, urging citizens to keep in touch with specialized bodies when needed.
Repeated occurrences of heavy rainfall in 'Al Murabba'aniyah'
And as the Jordan Meteorological Department had forecasted the weather that the kingdom experienced yesterday, predicting earlier that it would be very cold, overcast, and rainy in most areas, with heavy rain at times in the north and central areas, accompanied by thunder and occasionally heavy hail showers.
Due to the intensity of the rain in some areas, "Meteorology" warned of the risk of floods forming in valleys and low-lying areas, in addition to predictions of snow showers above high mountain peaks, sometimes mixed with rain, and possibly accumulating modestly above the high southern mountain peaks (Al-Sharah).
And according to the map resulting from the high-resolution model of the Arab Center for Climate, which was developed locally and considers local terrain accurately, after comparing it with other model outputs, the predictions were centered on recording significant rainfall amounts in several areas, including Amman, parts of Al-Salt, Ramallah, Jerusalem, and mountainous areas in Lebanon, and the heights of Qalamoun and north Damascus in Syria.
The intensity of the rainfall varies by region, but the risk of floods and floods in wide areas remains high.
Substantial progress compared to the previous season
In the same context, "Meteorology" predicted a slight rise in temperatures today (Wednesday), making the weather partly cloudy to overcast at times, and cold in most areas, with the possibility of light, scattered showers from time to time in the western parts of the kingdom. With evening hours, rainy opportunities weaken, and the weather gradually stabilizes.
The water scene depicted by the recent weather depressions presents a complex situation that combines legitimate optimism and necessary caution, framing these developments at the heart of the analytical context previously discussed regarding the nature of the rainy season, the limits of its exceptional nature, and its link to climate changes. The rapid filling of several dams and the early rise in storage levels cannot be interpreted as an isolated event but as part of a rainy pattern characterized by concentrated heavy rainfall over short periods, a feature that has become a recurring theme in recent 'Al Murabba'aniyah' seasons.
Data clearly indicates that the current season has made substantial progress compared to the previous season, both in terms of rainfall percentages and the inflows to the dams and recharge basins, providing a significant push to the water reserves and alleviating immediate concerns, especially regarding drinking water, rainfed agriculture, and groundwater recharging. However, this improvement, despite its importance, does not yet amount to a radical transformation in the course of the water crisis, aligning with the previous reading that saw these cases as a qualitative shift in rainfall behavior rather than a complete break with the past.
In this context, the precise contradiction between abundance and caution emerges, as the dams filling coincides with risks of floods and significant surface runoff,
