Khaberni - Experts in aviation and space safety warn that the increasing number of satellites and their debris in orbit may lead in the coming years to disruptions of flights, in a manner similar to disturbances caused by bad weather, especially as the probability increases that parts of these bodies reenter the atmosphere over busy air corridors.
According to a study conducted in 2025 by the University of British Columbia, the likelihood of uncontrolled space debris entering the atmosphere over heavily trafficked airspace is about 26% within one year, and previous models indicate that by the year 2030, the chance of a commercial aircraft encountering a piece of debris could reach one in every thousand flights, according to the Daily Galaxy website.
Researchers explained that the greatest danger does not come from large objects like rocket structures or inactive satellites, but from small fragments that survive reentry burns and range from tiny particles to fuel tanks and metal parts, speeding through the altitudes that commercial planes fly between 30,000 and 40,000 feet.
Benjamin Vergelí Bastida, a space debris systems engineer at the European Space Agency, said that airplanes can be affected even by very small pieces of debris, comparing the situation to the risks faced by planes when flying through volcanic ash, where tiny particles are enough to damage aircraft engines, navigation systems, and the aircraft structure itself.
The November 2022 incident highlighted the magnitude of the problem when Spain closed a large part of its airspace following the uncontrolled return of the core stage of China's "Long March 5B" rocket, resulting in delays, diversions, or cancellations of more than 300 flights, in an attempt to avoid the risk of a 20-ton body falling without a precisely anticipated trajectory.
Experts indicate that a lack of international coordination and limited precision in predicting the timings and locations of reentries force aviation authorities to make difficult decisions, either by closing vast swathes of airspace at a significant economic cost or by risking the continuation of air traffic.
In this context, national agencies and international organizations, including the Federal Aviation Administration and the International Civil Aviation Organization, are working on developing more accurate models and more targeted airspace closures, and the European Space Agency plans to launch a research mission in 2027 to collect detailed data on the disintegration of small satellites during reentry.
Specialists emphasize the need to adopt clear international standards for risk assessment and dealing with space debris, warning that the absence of these frameworks could make flight delays due to "space weather" a common occurrence in the near future.
