Khaberni - An anonymous trader on a betting platform made hundreds of thousands of dollars by betting on the overthrow of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on January 31.
Hours before the US secret operation in Venezuela, an anonymous trader on the Polymarket platform specialized in betting on future events made about $410,000 from bets totaling about $34,000, which were placed on the overthrow of Maduro by the end of last year.
The trader, whose account was newly created in December, started with a small initial bet, then gradually doubled his bets as tensions escalated between Washington and Caracas, placing his final bet just minutes before U.S. President Donald Trump issued orders for military action. At the time, the contract price reflected a slim 8% probability of the overthrow occurring.
Hours later, as news of the American operation spread, the value of the contracts sharply increased, raising widespread suspicions that the trader had used inside information from within US government circles. The concentration of bets from a new account at a very precise timing indicates the possibility of exploiting knowledge not available to the public.
Following the incident, Congressman Ritchie Torres announced his intention to introduce legislation prohibiting US officials—including executive staff and political appointees—from betting on "prediction markets" if they possess non-public information that could affect the outcomes.
Legal experts warn that the use of confidential information by a US official for betting purposes could be considered insider trading, which is punishable by law, although accountability may be challenging if the trader is a foreigner outside the United States.
