Global oil prices are heading towards recording the longest streak of monthly losses in more than two years, reflecting a change in the supply and demand dynamics, while this significant decline occurs as traders anticipate the results of the "OPEC+" meeting scheduled for this week, alongside market assessments of the U.S. efforts to end the ongoing geopolitical conflict in Ukraine.
Daily crude movements
Friday's trading saw a slight increase in "Brent" crude futures, where they rose by 0.52% to reach $63.67 per barrel. As for U.S. crude, it registered in its last settlement on the past Wednesday $59.08 per barrel with an increase of 0.73%, while no settlement was recorded yesterday, Thursday, due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States.
Surplus expectations loom over the markets
According to the economic site Bloomberg, "Brent" crude has dropped by nearly 15% during the current year. These pressures on the prices are attributed to new expectations of a global surplus in supplies, following "OPEC+" reinstating some production capacity that had been halted, while producers outside the alliance added more supplies to the market.
Both contracts, "Brent" and U.S. crude, are heading towards recording a fourth consecutive monthly loss, which is the longest streak of losses recorded since 2023, and it is expected that the oil market will face a daily surplus estimated at 2.8 million barrels during next year, which confirms the continued impact of expectations of rising global supply on the future of prices.
It is indicated that crude is heading towards the longest streak of losses since 2023 as the fourth monthly decline was recorded in November, which is the longest streak of losses since 2023. Prices have fallen due to expectations of a surplus in supply, with supplies exceeding demand levels, and recently, diplomatic developments related to Ukraine.
Pessimism about peace: However, nearly 20 oil traders and investors surveyed by "Bloomberg" stated that they either do not expect any peace agreement at all, or if it is achieved, the increase in Russian barrel flows to the market would take time.
Investment Manager's Comment: Harith Khurshid, the investment manager at "Karobar Capital LP," said: "The peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia means nothing unless it translates into actual barrels. The market needs pipelines, ships, and contracts, a handshake alone won't be enough."
Trading on Thursday might be weak due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States.
