Khaberni - The frequent public appearances of the Turkish President's son, Bilal Erdoğan, in the public space recently sparked debate about his potential entry into politics, positioning him as a potential successor to his father, who has remained outside of political life in the country to date.
The question of succession? President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has led his Justice and Development Party since its foundation in 2001 and the country since his first election in November 2002, and has been the sole leader of the party since then, even during the periods when he stepped down from the presidency in favor of Ahmet Davutoğlu and then Binali Yıldırım under the previous republican system that prohibited the combining of state presidency with party and/or government leadership.
Throughout these years, Erdoğan has remained a unifying and rallying figure in the ruling party, and the voting percentages for him as president have always been higher than those for his party in parliamentary elections. Therefore, the issue of who would succeed him has not been openly discussed within the party corridors, and I believe it has not been raised at all even behind the scenes.
Most likely, the party apparatus did not see a need for this discussion given Erdoğan's ongoing presence and his ability to continue contributing, allowing the constitution to enable his continued governance.
However, the man's victory in the last presidential term allowed by the constitution in the 2023 elections raised the topic of his succession on a limited scale, specifically in the media. At that time, several names were proposed, including the current Foreign Minister and former Chief of Intelligence, Hakan Fidan, who is Erdoğan's right-hand man, as well as other less prominent figures in the political arena, like the president's son-in-law, Selçuk Bayraktar.
However, this discussion remained muted and did not feature in the political debate of the party in public, especially with significant developments domestically and abroad that greatly boosted Erdoğan's stock recently, notably the fall of the Syrian regime and the advancement of "Terror-Free Turkey" project to resolve the Kurdish issue which included the Kurdistan Workers' Party ceasing its operations and dissolving itself.
At that time, nationalist leader and Erdoğan ally Devlet Bahçeli stated that Erdoğan should be re-nominated for the presidency as there is no one better than him in vision, experience, and accomplishments. Also, the Justice and Development Party spokesperson Ömer Çelik confirmed that their candidate for the upcoming presidential elections is Erdoğan again.
This opened the door to discussions about the legal pathways to re-nominate Erdoğan for the presidency, which include calling early presidential and parliamentary elections (which would count against his term duration), drafting a new constitution, or making a constitutional amendment to redefine the terms allowed for future candidacy.
The resolution of the Kurdish issue seemed to be a helping factor in these pathways, gaining the votes of deputies from the Peoples' Democratic and Equality Party "Kurdish" in parliament in addition to the number of deputies from the Republican Alliance consisting of the Justice and Development Party and the Nationalist Movement Party.
Therefore, in conclusion, the issue of President Erdoğan's succession remains distant from public discussion within the Justice and Development Party, amidst the direction towards re-nominating him for the presidential elections.
Bilal Erdoğan? When asked years ago about the potential succession of Selçuk Bayraktar, the president's son-in-law and pioneer of the defense industry in Turkey, to Erdoğan in the presidency in the future, I said that it was not on the agenda at the current stage, as there can be no talk of a political future for him as long as he remains outside political life and does not hold any government or party position, nor a presence in the political arena.
The same applies to the president's son, Bilal Erdoğan, who is active in the educational and cultural field in the country through his presidency of the board of trustees of the "Science Dissemination Foundation" and his membership in a number of civil society organizations mainly dealing with education and culture.
However, the past two weeks have seen a change in this matter, as the man has appeared extensively in several events that received wide media coverage, some of them inherently political in nature, and he made speeches and/or took positions on several political issues, which sparked debate on social media about his potential political future.
On November 26th, Bilal Erdoğan participated in the "18th Verona Eurasian Economic Forum" held in Istanbul, and spoke about his country's relations with both Russia and Ukraine and about the genocide in Gaza.
On the 29th of the same month, President Erdoğan participated in the "Turkey Academy Award" ceremony organized by the "Science Dissemination Foundation" chaired by his son Bilal, during which the latter presented the former with a commemorative shield and then kissed his hand—as a father this time, not just as president—which sparked discussion about the implications of the event.
On the same day, Bilal Erdoğan participated JSName AG in the event "Justice for Palestine: Resisting Injustice" under the 5th International Summit of Simulating the Model of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation in high schools, and spoke at length about the genocide in Gaza, emphasizing that it is not just a military aggression but an "operation to erase memory, distort facts, and annihilate a people," asserting the "erosion of the pillars of the international system."
The next day, the president's son, along with Justice and Development Party spokesperson Ömer Çelik, participated in the "Youth Impressions of Terror-Free Turkey" event organized by the Turkish Youth Civil Society Organizations Platform, discussing the most present project in the country's political debate. On December 2nd, the man visited the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus as part of a delegation from the Islamic Historical Science Research (iBTAV) Foundation and met with its recently elected president Tufan Erhürman individually.
He also spoke as the main speaker at the Entrepreneurship Awards ceremony organized by the Foundation of Leading Businessmen on December 7th, and sharply criticized the Association of Turkish Manufacturers and Businessmen, known for its opposition to President Erdoğan. He participated in the "Cyprus Workshop" organized by a high school on the same day, speaking about the Cyprus issue and also about "Israel, the greatest strategic threat in the region."
In summary, the man has participated extensively in several events in a short period, and presented an uncharacteristic political speech for someone primarily involved in the educational, cultural, and community fields, sparking a debate about his political future and whether his father is preparing him to succeed him.
In the first place, it is unlikely that this intensive presence and repeated political speech are merely unintended coincidences; rather, it seems intended for the man to have a frame and platform in the Turkish public sphere, but this time with a political presence, not just educational, cultural, or community-oriented. And being the son of the country's president, discussing the issue of his political future seems inevitable in a country governed by political and party polarization like Turkey.
However, the idea of him succeeding his father in the presidency is still unlikely at the current stage, for several reasons, including that President Erdoğan is still capable and willing to continue as president, and the constitutional pathways that allow this are present and have not yet been tested or failed. Moreover, Bilal does not currently hold any formal government or party position, let alone the expected embarrassment in the matter of a son succeeding his father, even if it comes through elections recognized for their integrity.
Therefore, it is likely one of two paths; either Erdoğan is quietly preparing his son Bilal for a gradual political presence in the distant future, with these being his first steps into Turkish political life without necessarily assigning him roles or positions soon. Or he is keeping him present for any uncalculated surprises, such as if the constitutional paths to re-nominate him for the presidency were to fail, for example.
The second path might be preparing him to succeed him in leading the party, not the state, as the idea of separating the state presidency from the party leadership had been on the agenda of the Justice and Development Party in a previous era, as a means to free up more time for the president to lead the state. This idea may have returned to discussion, and the son's name has appeared among the proposed names, especially since some speak of his influence within the party, even if he does not hold an official position in it.
In any case, confirming or denying the political implications of Bilal Erdoğan's recent central presence in the political arena lies in the extent of his continued public participation on the one hand, and whether a party (or less likely government) position is assigned to him in the coming weeks and months.
