Khaberni - Popular calls have increased in Hadhramaut province to include the Yemeni branch of the Muslim Brotherhood in US President Donald Trump's decision to start classifying the group's branches in Egypt, Lebanon, and Jordan as "terrorist organizations"; out of fear of executing its plan in Hadhramaut and opening the door for Iranian planners and Al-Qaeda to divide the country, especially with an escalation and tribal tension in the province as well.
After years of suffering from frivolous policies and security breaches, and attempts to dismantle the social fabric in Hadhramaut, "Al-Khulasa Net" says that the sons of the province, with their various societal and political components, now realize that the reformist Brotherhood party represents a front for a cross-border project that exploits religious discourse to achieve narrow organizational and partisan goals, and this discourse meets the narrative of the Houthi militia and Al-Qaeda.
The popular movement derives its importance in Hadhramaut from its vital geographic position on the map of global trade and oil production in southern Yemen, as it houses the largest oil fields in the country within what is known as the Masila sedimentary basin, which extends in the eastern part of the province.
Fertile ground for extremism
The armed tribal escalation in Hadhramaut poses a direct threat to one of the most vital marine passages for global trade and energy, as disruption of oil ports or export routes on the Arabian Sea could raise the cost of marine insurance and affect the flow of up to 3.8 million barrels of oil per day through Bab al-Mandab and the Suez Canal, a main route linking Asia to Europe, and any expansion in the conflict means increased risks to international supply chains.
This escalation, along with attempts by gunmen affiliated with "Hadhramaut Tribes Alliance" to seize oil fields and engage in looting and roadblock activities in Hadhramaut after their clash with the "Hadhrami Elite Forces" — the government forces responsible for protecting Hadhramaut — will not only be a fertile environment for the Muslim Brotherhood but an opportunity for Al-Qaeda to regain its activity and for Houthi militias to implement Iran's plan to divide Yemen.
Hadhrami forces enjoy extended local legitimacy for years, and have supported stability in the province where they confronted Houthi infiltration attempts and kept oil facilities from collapsing, and the mobilization of the Hadhrami Elite to face the tribal alliance is not an escalation, but a restoration of security discipline.
Local movements in Hadhramaut accuse the Reform Party, the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood in Yemen, of exploiting religious and provocative discourse to inflame tribal tensions to weaken the state's authority. Local sources indicate that party leaders played a role in encouraging some tribes to escalate against the local authority and against the Hadhrami Elite Forces, portraying the conflict as a "legitimate duty" against "exclusion and marginalization".
The state of tension and escalation in Hadhramaut has renewed fears of Al-Qaeda regaining its extremist activities and the success of the Houthi militia's plan to divide Yemen. Here, Faraj al-Bahsani, a member of the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council, warns that Hadhramaut is going through a phase he described as "the most dangerous in decades", calling for an end to the escalation that could push the province towards an internal conflict with no winners.
Al-Bahsani, a former governor of Hadhramaut, said in a statement that the province is being driven towards "divisions that only serve its enemies", warning against any attempts to show force that could lead to chaos.
Reuters agency notes that the Hadhramaut Tribes Alliance is a tribal formation known for its opposition to the Southern Transitional Council, seeking to implement self-rule in the province - a backdoor gateway for dividing Yemen - and now possesses military power in several Hadhramaut directorates not subject to the Yemeni Ministry of Defense.
The alliance adopts a separatist discourse in Hadhramaut, according to the agency, as observers and political analysts say that the province, the largest and most oil-rich governorate in Yemen, experiences a complex overlap between local and regional military forces amid a growing competition for influence that raises fears that the acceleration of military developments on the ground and a serious escalation in a country suffering from the ravages of war for over a decade.
Hadhramaut is under the control of the internationally recognized government facing the Houthi movement allied with Iran, but a Reuters report criticized the government's failure to act or take any measures so far to ease tensions in a relatively stable province, especially with the sharply worded discourse, threats, and military tribal mobilization of the "Hadhramaut Tribes Alliance".
Economic Driver
Hadhramaut's importance, in southern Yemen, emerges as a main gateway and international nautical route for global trade to export crude oil from Hadhramaut on the Arabian Sea coast to global markets. According to "South 24" center, the province is rich in vast oil and gas reserves.
Hadhramaut includes two main fields, Attof field with reserves of 200 million barrels, and Halqooz field with a total reserve of 150 million barrels, yet this crucial oil mass in Yemen is threatened by irregular military movements called the "Hadhramaut Tribes Alliance" led by Amro bin Habrish, where the Second Military Region command in the province reported armed attacks by militias affiliated with "Bin Habrish" on Saturday on some sites belonging to oil company protection forces, especially sites of Petro Masila company in Hadhramaut.
The Energy Platform confirms that Yemen's geographical location at the Strait of Bab al-Mandab is a strategic point in the energy trade, as more than 3.8 million barrels of oil pass through it daily. Any tension in Hadhramaut will reflect on that trade, especially after the Houthi militia stormed sites of oil companies, representing a serious escalation of the situation by these outlawed armed groups, targeting one of the most valuable assets of the people represented by Petro Masila company, according to the local platform "Aden Time".
Amid these circumstances, government forces affiliated with supporting the Hadhrami Elite Forces have mobilized to face the escalation of gunmen, with Reuters agency noting that observers of the Yemeni situation warn that Hadhramaut province is on the verge of explosion.
Observers also note that any tribal armed unrest in Hadhramaut will not only impact the local level, but also pose a threat to one of the most important maritime routes for global trade and energy, as Hadhramaut is located on the southeastern coast of Yemen and includes ports and oil facilities (like Al Dabbah port and export terminals linked to fields like Masila) that are connected to global supply chains passing through the Gulf of Aden and Bab al-Mandab up to the Suez Canal — pathways through which a significant part of the trade between Asia and Europe passes.
